Kerry Brown - Xi: A Study in Power

I magine that you stop someone on the street in Europe or the US and ask them to name the most powerful person in the world. They might say the US president, or the founders of Facebook or Amazon. The more eclectic might suggest the Pope, or the owner of a news empire, like Rupert Murdoch.

In recent years, more and more people might say the current leader of China, Xi Jinping. As recognition of this, in 2017, the Economist placed Xi directly next to the then American President Donald Trump, arguing that the former had become more powerful than the latter. Despite this, few feel they really know what sort of a person and politician Xi is, nor that they understand much about the country he leads.

People believe Xi is powerful for three main reasons. The first, and most obvious, is that the economic and military capability of the Peoples Republic has come from the margins in the 1980s to being at the global forefront by the late 2010s. Barring disaster, some time before 2030, Xis country is expected to overtake the US and become the worlds largest economy. Proof of how much this rattled x the worlds uncontested superpower at the time was that, after years of dismissing Chinas hopes of ever getting to such a position, Trump became fixated on this new great competitor. This was certainly not a comfortable place for China to occupy but in many ways being viewed so closely and jealously by Washington was the highest form of flattery for Beijing. The fact that the worlds most powerful nation felt threatened by China showed that the nation mattered. Xis country was no longer in the margins.

The second reason is that Xi himself seems to exemplify power. It exudes from him almost like a physical force. Since his rise to the head of the Communist Party in 2012, a body that enjoys a monopoly of organised political control in the country, he has cleared away all possible internal competition. Evidence of his desire for control is everywhere, and sometimes shocking in its detail. With the use of new technology and new messaging, and with China on the cusp of being the greatest global nation, Xi symbolises this ambition in the flesh. He speaks and acts like a leader with endless confidence. Even if this is an act, it is an effective one.

But the third reason is about the context of that power. Questioned, tested and often even humiliated in their own political environments, leaders of democracies in the West might look at Xis position and, perhaps, feel the slightest tinge of envy. With control of the party he leads, Xi has levers over xi the media, the military, business and practically every other part of society that other leaders could only dream of. He leads the country as a skilled conductor leads an orchestra, where the obedient players are all on message and there is no sign of dissent.

This capacity, however, was not built overnight. Xi is powerful, but much of that power is contextual. A huge amount of it derives not from him but from the political party he leads. He has also had the luck to inherit leadership of the Communist Party and the country at a time when a number of different developments have come together. Now, after decades of sacrifice and effort, is the time of feasting. Technology, the economy and the confused situation of the outside world have created a vast historic opportunity in Chinas favour. The Communist Party was brought to power by Mao in 1949 and, after some disastrous adventures along the way, made stronger and sustainable by Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. All of these leaders have contributed significantly to the position that Xi is now in, and to his good fortune. Xis power did not come from nowhere.

What has perhaps most unsettled Western commentators is not so much Chinas prominence but the way it has developed more quickly than anyone ever expected. The country has always been acknowledged by the rest of the world as being important. But half a century ago, in the 1970s, Maoist xii China was introspective, diplomatically isolated, economically undeveloped, largely rural and regarded as a place that would always struggle just to survive. Today, China looks like another country. The strongest link between these periods is the party, the entity that now has 95 million members led by Xi. It alone provides the common point between these very different eras. To work out how these two Chinas are part of the same story, showing the same ambition, one has to start with the role of the party, and understand Xis role within it. Xi Jinping and the Communist Party need to be seen as inseparable entities, Using unique Chinese sources, some of which have never been properly analysed in the English language before, this book attempts to do that. It also shows how extraordinary the party has been as a vehicle for Chinese modernisation and nationalism, and how formidable Xi has proved as the director of these forces.

Make no bones about it, because of the dramatic new situation China is in, Xi is possibly the one leader out of the current global heads of state that will have the greatest impact on the present and the future of the world and its development. The mere fact that he is in charge of a fifth of humanity is enough to justify this claim. But it is also merited by the fact that his country now stands on the cusp of finally achieving modernity on Chinese terms. This is a wholly new story, never seen in our times. xiii

While Xi is the symbol of these forces of national rejuvenation and ambition, we should not get carried away and start to regard him as their creator. Chinese people desire better quality of life regardless of what their current political leaders say. Part of Xis effectiveness has been in crafting messages and policies domestically that speak to the growing middle class and their hopes and ambitions in ways that keep them onside. Failure to see this factor clearly has been one of the key reasons why many outside China have dismissed him merely as a dictator and autocrat. He is a far more complex leader than that, even if elements of his leadership style do fall under those descriptions. The paradox of Xi Jinping is that in many ways he as an individual person does not count rather it is the body he represents, the Communist Party of China, with its history, its sense of mission, its complete control over all organised political life in China and its view of humanity, time and social life that is important. As the leader of this body, Xi matters. Conveying his achievements and politics in ways that properly acknowledge this balance between the individual and the group they lead, and therefore have power through, is crucial.

Whatever one thinks of Xi and the system he operates in something this book will try to explain one thing is irrefutable. The decisions he is making and the direction his country goes in will have a massive impact on the global economy, on climate change, security and human development. Everyone xiv who cares about these things, wherever they happen to be, needs to know about Xi and have an interest in who he is, what he is doing and why. To understand our world today, it is vital to know about the leader of the worlds most influential economy, one that is deeply integrated into global supply chains that reach into our homes, one that will have a decisive impact on whether humanity is able to conquer climate change and clean up its environment and one whose leadership is shaping the most fundamental geopolitical balancing between East and West seen in modern times. For those who are interested in the affairs of the modern world, understanding Xi is crucial.