Strategic Reassurance and Resolve
U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
James Steinberg
Michael E. OHanlon
with a new preface by the authors
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
PRINCETON AND OXFORD
Copyright 2014 by Princeton University Press
Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540
In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TW
press.princeton.edu
All Rights Reserved
Fourth printing, and first paperback printing, with a new preface by the authors, 2015
Paperback ISBN: 978-0-691-16855-5
The Library of Congress has cataloged the cloth edition as follows:
Steinberg, James.
Strategic reassurance and resolve : U.S - China relations in the twenty-first century / James Steinberg, Michael E. OHanlon.
pages cm
Summary: After forty years of largely cooperative Sino-U.S. relations, policymakers, politicians, and pundits on both sides of the Pacific see growing tensions between the United States and China. Some go so far as to predict a future of conflict, driven by the inevitable rivalry between an established and a rising power, and urge their leaders to prepare now for a future showdown. Others argue that the deep economic interdependence between the two countries and the many areas of shared interests will lead to more collaborative relations in the coming decades. In this book, James Steinberg and Michael OHanlon stake out a third, less deterministic position. They argue that there are powerful domestic and international factors, especially in the military and security realms, that could well push the bilateral relationship toward an arms race and confrontation, even though both sides will be far worse off if such a future comes to pass. They contend that this pessimistic scenario can be confidently avoided only if China and the United States adopt deliberate policies designed to address the security dilemma that besets the relationship between a rising and an established power. The authors propose a set of policy proposals to achieve a sustainable, relatively cooperative relationship between the two nations, based on the concept of providing mutual strategic reassurance in such key areas as nuclear weapons and missile defense, space and cyber operations, and military basing and deployments, while also demonstrating strategic resolve to protect vital national interests, including, in the case of the United States, its commitments to regional alliesProvided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-691-15951-5 (hardback)
1. United StatesForeign relationsChinaHistory21st century. 2. ChinaForeign relationsUnited StatesHistory21st century. I. OHanlon, Michael E. II. Title.
E183.8.C5S84 2014
327.510730905dc23
2013035849
British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available
This book has been composed in Palatino LT Std
Printed on acid-free paper.
Printed in the United States of America
5 7 9 10 8 6 4
Preface
S ince the hardcover version of this book was published in the spring of 2014, there are hopeful, albeit modest signs that the leaders of the United States and China are beginning to take steps to address the growing danger of rivalry, and potentially even conflict, between our two nations. During the early part of 2014, there was growing anxiety in the United States and throughout East Asia that President Xi had decided to embark on a much more assertive approach to regional securityone that decisively broke with the cautious strategy reflected in Deng Xiaopings maxim to avoid flaunting Chinas capabilities (tao gang yang hui). Continued tensions between China and Japan, particularly over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, a confrontation with Vietnam over Chinese drilling in coastal waters in May 2014, efforts to prevent the resupply of Philippine marines deployed near a shoal, reports of stepped-up efforts by China to construct airbases on reclaimed land in the South China Sea, and close encounters between U.S. and Chinese military vessels and aircraft all seemed to portend growing potential for confrontation. President Xis pronouncement that Asias problems ultimately must be resolved by Asians and Asias security ultimately must be protected by Asians at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) seemed to belie past assurances that China welcomed a U.S. presence in the Western Pacific.
Chinas actions in turn produced an increasingly sharp response from Washington, ranging from the indictment of five members of the PLA for cyber espionage in May 2014, to stepped-up military cooperation with Chinas neighbors, including the first visit by the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to Vietnam. In June 2014, Defense Secretary Hagel sharply criticized Chinas destabilizing, unilateral actions with respect to maritime territorial claims,decision to break off cyber talks in response to the indictments. President Obamas planned visit to China in November 2014, in connection with Chinas hosting of the APEC summit, seemed to promise more in the way of damage control than progress.
Yet to the surprise of many, the meeting produced some important steps. They were modest in their own right, but perhaps foreshadowed a growing awareness of the need for active management of the dangers in the relationship. The United States and China agreed to take significant steps to address the issue of carbon emissions and climate changea crucial decision on the eve of the Lima Climate Summit. They also agreed to work together to address the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. But perhaps most important of all, they agreed on two military confidence-building measures: the U.S.-China Memorandum of Understanding on the Rules of Behavior for the Safety of Air and Maritime Encounters and an agreement on mutual notification of major military exercises. And perhaps equally significant, the measures were announced at the same time that China and Japan resumed high level diplomatic engagementan encouraging recognition of the growing dangers of conflict in the region.
These are modest first steps, and implementation will be key, as well as the possible extension of the agreements to non-military assets such as Coast Guard vessels and even fishing ships. The recent exercises in the Gulf of Aden during which the two navies exercised the new risk reduction protocols are encouraging. An agreement to share space situational awareness information between the two militaries, announced after the summit, is another positive sign. The U.S. military has also decided to drop the term Air-Sea Battle to describe U.S. strategy, in favor of Joint Concept for Access and Maneuver in the Global Commonsa less provocative, if somewhat bureaucratic characterization. But more important than the specific measures adopted is the growing recognition that the two sides cannot rely simply on professions of good intentions to assure that the relationship will go smoothly.
