Oswaldo de Rivero B. - The myth of development : non-viable economies and the crisis of civilization

About the author

Oswaldo de Rivero is a Diplomat, Ambassador (retired) with the Foreign Service of Peru. He has served in London, Moscow, Geneva and New York; as Perus Permanent Representative to the World Trade Organization (WTO), to the United Nations Offices in Geneva and New York and on the United Nations Security Council. He has written numerous essays and articles in Le Monde Diplomatique, The UNESCO Courier , as well as the written press in Geneva and Latin America.

THE MYTH OF DEVELOPMENT

Non-Viable Economies and the
Crisis of Civilization

Second edition

Oswaldo de Rivero

Translated by Claudia Encinas and Janet Herrick Encinas

The Myth of Development: Non-Viable Economies and the Crisis of Civilization, second edition, was first published in 2010 by Zed Books Ltd, The Foundry, 17 Oval Way, London SE11 5RR, UK

The first edition, The Myth of Development: Non-Viable Economies of the 21st Century , was first published in 2001 and the second edition in 2010

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Copyright Oswaldo de Rivero 2010 and 2019
Translation copyright Zed Books

The right of Oswaldo de Rivero to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988

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Index by Rohan Bolton,
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ISBN 978-1-78699-760-9 hb
ISBN 978-1-78699-761-6 pb
ISBN 978-1-78699-762-3 ePub
ISBN 978-1-78699-763-0 PDF
ISBN 978-1-78699-764-7 Mobi

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to Penelope

Contents

Oswaldo de Rivero

After more than sixty years of development theories and policies, only two city states, Singapore and Hong Kong, and two nation states, South Korea and Taiwan, are considered to have moved from developing to developed. Today, the only nation state that is in a rapid process of unsustainable development is China.

Owing to climate change, today more than ever, development is a myth, because all countries (developed as well the so-called, erroneously, developing countries) are mired in a crisis of civilization.

This crisis of civilization is due to the fact that all countries in the world are in a process of unsustainable urbanization, following what I have called the California model. This consists of an urban expansion, as has happened in California, using fossil fuels that emit millions of tons of CO2 to the atmosphere, adding to global warming. Furthermore, this urban expansion destroys agricultural land and diverts water resources intended for farming to the ever-expanding urban centers.

Today, the Californian model of urban expansion is, to a lesser or greater degree, the global paradigm of urbanization and civilization. All the worlds cities expand by pouring cement; by destroying agricultural lands and biodiversity; by insatiably devouring water, food and petroleum; and by turning the private automobile with its combustion engine into the transport king, spewing into the atmosphere tons of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, polluting the air and compounding global warming.

The year 2010 will be remembered as historic for humankind: for the first time since the Neolithic Era began, more than 50 per cent of the planets population were living in cities. In the year 2050, the planet will be super-urbanized, with more than 80 per cent of its inhabitants living in sixty megalopolises and hundreds of cities of roughly 1 million inhabitants each. The greater part of this planetary urbanization is occurring in the underdeveloped countries. Thus the cities of Latin America, the Middle East, Asia and Africa are expanding, like those of California, over agricultural lands and forests, consuming the water that should be used for food production, clogging their streets with automobile traffic and its pollution and adding more CO2 and other greenhouse gases to those already accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolutions of the developed countries.

According to United Nations statistics, urban expansion in the underdeveloped countries is adding half a million people per week to their cities. By 2020, the population of the underdeveloped countries will have reached 6 billion, the great majority of whom will be living in cities. Such a mass of humanity will consume millions of liters of water, tons of food and incalculable amounts of energy. Following the present trend, these vital resources will be ever more limited and expensive. At that point, what I call a physical-social imbalance will emerge between the available supplies of water, food and energy on one hand, and the poor countries burgeoning urban populations on the other.

The world today has many cultures but only one civilization: the global urban California model that is present to some degree in all countries. This urban civilization model has reached a crisis: so far, due to ethical, political or technological factors, it has been incapable of solving two problems that are fundamental for its sustained existence. First, it has been unable to substitute its dirty fossil fuels, such as coal, petroleum and gas, causing the threat of global warming. Second, it cannot change its consumption patterns, plundering the earths resources and converting it into a gigantic garbage dump.

A great many economists and politicians do not realize that the present crisis afflicting the world is a crisis of civilization. It is a crisis of the style of urban life consumerist, free spending, environmentally unsustainable of the California model, which has ended in unstoppable global warming.

However, it is very common today to hear the concept of sustainable development recommended as a panacea to solve this civilizations crisis. In fact, the proposed sustainable development is an oxymoron, since development cannot be sustainable, because, today, not even a combination of many renewable energies could replace the daily requirement for 90 million barrels of petroleum to generate the 320 billion kilowatt-hours that produce the $60 trillion worth of goods and services of the global economy. Currently, more than 75 per cent of the energy used globally is in the form of petroleum, coal and gas. At present, our civilization is still far from capable of living without these polluting energies.

The only renewable energy source that is totally clean and perpetual, and could replace petroleum and coal, is hydrogen fusion. Achieving this energy would be like finding the holy grail of lasting, clean energy, or like the energy of the sun being produced on the earth, with no danger of radioactivity. Fusion energy is still a project that needs vast research and development as well as billions of dollars. The experts believe that it would take another twenty years of research to make it feasible.

In any case, if we are to escape the crisis of our civilization, it is urgent that we continue developing more efficient and less costly sources of renewable energy, not only because global warming must be stopped, but also because the petroleum that moves the global economy at present is not infinite. Studies and the opinions of qualified experts agree that the worlds reserves of petroleum are running out; its production has already reached its peak and will begin its inexorable decline within fifteen years.