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The International Missile Bazaar

The International Missile Bazaar

The New Suppliers' Network

Edited By
William C. Potter and Harlan W. Jencks

First published 1994 by Westview Press, Inc.

Published 2019 by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

Copyright 1994 Taylor & Francis

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:
Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The International missile bazaar: the new suppliers' network / edited
by William C. Potter and Harlan W. Jencks.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8133-8796-5
1. Guided missile industries. 2. Arms transfers. I. Potter,
William C. II. Jencks, Harlan W.
HD9744.P732I57 1994
338.4'76234519dc20 93-29533
CIP

ISBN 13: 978-0-367-29318-5 (hbk)

Dedicated to Anna and Cheryl

Contents

, William C. Potter

, Aaron Karp

, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr.

, Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr.

Cameron Binkley

, Pricles Gasparini Alves

, Hua Di

, Hua Di

, Mark H. Kagan

, Timothy V. McCarthy

, Gerald M. Steinberg

, Scott D. Tollefson

, Janne E. Nolan

, Harlan W. Jencks

Guide

William C. Potter

The end of the Cold War and the greatly diminished threat of superpower conflict has dramatically altered international politics. Although the positive effects of this transformation are easily recognizable, the war in the Persian Gulf and the savage fighting in what was formerly Yugoslavia are grim reminders of the persistence and growth of other very real threats to global peace and security. One poorly understood but increasingly significant danger involves the proliferation of ballistic missiles.

The number of states capable of selling ballistic missile technology, missile components, and the missiles themselves on the international market is large and growing. Argentina, Brazil, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, China, and South Korea are among the countries often noted as actual or potential emerging suppliers.

Many nonproliferation specialists are concerned that the emergence of new missile suppliers not bound by existing international agreements poses a major threat to the nonproliferation regime. Concern regarding the issue of ballistic missile proliferation, however, has not been matched by systematic data collection and analysis, especially that of a comparative nature. There is little agreement, for example, on the nature or magnitude of the problem, the motivations and disincentives for emerging suppliers to enter the international market, the extent to which the new suppliers have departed from the export practices of the more established supplier states, or the processes by which technology is transferred. There is even less agreement about appropriate means to cope with the perceived problem. The purpose of this book, a companion volume to an earlier study on the emerging nuclear suppliers, is to remedy, at least in part, this deficiency.

This study is a product of an ongoing research project at the Monterey Institute of International Studies on International Missile Proliferation (IMP). The first phase of the project entailed development of a conceptual framework for analyzing the emerging missile suppliers. That framework identifies four basic categories of information relevant to understanding the behavior of missile suppliers: transactions, domestic structure, capabilities, and norms. Data on these missile supplier attributes are collected and recorded in machine readable form. This data collection, the product of the second phase of the IMP project, is now accessible on-line and contains thousands of entries from dozens of publications.

The third phase of the project entailed the preparation of a series of comparative case studies of the emerging missile suppliers. These studies, and the management strategies derived from them, constitute the following chapters.

In order to sharpen the volume's focus and to enhance the generalizability of the findings, each of the country case study authors was asked to address the same set of research questions. These questions were grouped under the headings "Transactions," "Capabilities," "Structure," and "Norms."

Questions Pertaining to Transactions

1. What motivates the missile supplier to enter the international market (e.g., hard currency, prestige, political influence, foothold in markets, subsidies for domestic space program, barter arrangements for coveted items, etc.)?
2. What are the major disincentives (economic and otherwise) for entering the international missile market?
3. What have been the major missile transactions involving missile technology, equipment, components, and services?
4. What has been the nature of the most important missile trade agreements (e.g., countertrade, offsets, coproduction agreements)?
5. Does the country serve as a transshipper (i.e., middleman) for missile transactions? If so, for what items and for what countries?
6. What revenues have been derived from missile exports and what revenues are projected?
7. Have there been instances when the country has been approached for the sale of missiles or missile-related items and services but declined? What were the items and states involved?
8. To what extent has the state been engaged in joint venture activities regarding missile trade?
9. What instances, if any, can you discern of illegal/blackmarket activity?
10. What is your overall assessment of the state's missile export activity (i.e., prudent, reckless)?
11. What restrictions or guarantees does the state require as a condition of export?
12. To what extent has the country's export behavior changed over time? If it has changed, why?

Questions Pertaining to Capabilities

1. What is the present and planned capability of the country to produce missile technology, components, and entire missiles?
2. What is the present and planned space launch capability?
3. What are the major bottlenecks/obstacles in acquiring a missile production capability?

Questions Pertaining to Structure

1. What are the relevant export licensing regulations and procedures? What new regulations, if any are planned?
2. What are the relevant governmental agency actors in the export licensing process? What is their relevant weight?
3. What role is played by the private sector, quasi-governmental actors, and multinationals in decisions regarding missile exports?
4. What are the country's major firms engaged in commerce in missiles and missile-related services?

Questions Pertaining to Norms

1. What are the country's declaratory policies regarding missile exports?

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