Gregory B. Poling - On Dangerous Ground

On Dangerous Ground

On Dangerous Ground

Americas Century in the South China Sea

GREGORY B. POLING

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Oxford University Press 2022

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Library of Congress Control Number: 2022000760

ISBN 9780197633984

eISBN 9780197634004

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197633984.001.0001

CONTENTS

I have often been warned that book writing is a long and lonely process. This was certainly no exception. That I came out the other side with an actual book to my name is because of the generous support and advice of many friends and colleagues. At the Center for Strategic and International Studies, my home for over a decade now, Michael Green saw value in the project and ensured I had the resources and flexibility to see it through. Conor Cronin was the first to push me toward the undertaking. Murray Hiebert was a valuable mentor, as he has been throughout my career. Harrison Prtat helped keep the lights on in the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative while I dove into research. And several capable research interns at AMTI helped me track down sources, including Charlotte Adams, Jillian Lope, Grace Headinger, and Camille Bismonte. My longtime collaborator Paul Franz turned my years of GIS tinkering into the elegant maps in this volume. John Schaus, Jude Blanchette, and Gregory Winger all read early versions of chapters and gave valuable feedback.

I am immensely grateful for the collaboration and generosity of fellow scholars in the South China Sea research community, without whom this would have been an impossible undertaking. Jay Batongbacal pointed the way to valuable early sources on American and Philippine discussions about the South China Sea. Marites Vitug helped answer follow-ups on her excellent volume on the Philippine arbitration case, Rock Solid . Alex Vuving lent his singular expertise on the confusing sequence of Vietnamese occupations in the Spratlys. Bill Hayton allowed me to endlessly needle him with questions about early Chinese claims and sources from his seminal The South China Sea . James Kraska gave me the missing ingredients for the law of the sea chapters by recommending Ann Hollicks U.S. Foreign Policy and Law of the Sea . Many others have helped me along this path through generous conversations over drinks on the conference circuit over the years. I wont try to list them all, as I will inevitably miss some, but you will find much of their valuable research filling the notes in this volume.

I also owe a great debt to the teams at Oxford University Press and Newgen Knowledge Words, including David McBride, Emily Benitez, and Nirenjena Joseph, for shepherding this book through the review, editing, and production process.

Finally, I never would have made it through this process without the support and considerable patience of my wife, Nicole Poling, and daughter, Ella. They put up with plenty of weekend and late-night writing sessions. Now each has a stack of IOUs for missed playtimes and date nights and postponed home repairs coming due. I am very happy to pay up.

China is creating a great wall of sand, with dredges and bulldozers, over the course of months. When one looks at Chinas pattern of provocative actions towards smaller claimant statesthe lack of clarity on its sweeping nine-dash line claim that is inconsistent with international law and the deep asymmetry between Chinas capabilities and those of its smaller neighborswell its no surprise that the scope and pace of building man-made islands raise serious questions about Chinese intentions.... And were all hopeful that China will become a contributor to stability, not a source of insecurity. But as we like to say in Navy circles, hope is not a strategy.

U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Harry Harris, Remarks at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, March 31, 2015

Have the United States and its allies and partners lost the South China Sea? It is a common refrain. China has steadily militarized the contested waterway while squeezing out its neighbors. U.S. policy has failed to halt, or even markedly slow, that process. And that failure has dented American standing. But what exactly is there for the United Statesa non-claimant located an ocean awayto win or lose? What, if any, critical U.S. interests are at stake? Those questions need to be answered before policymakers can craft strategy and judge success or failure.

The South China Sea is home to not one but two different kinds of disputes. Together they make it the most politically and legally contested body of water in the world. First, there are territorial disputes over hundreds of rocks and reefs that dot the sea. In the northwest lie the Paracel Islands, which are occupied by China but claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. In the south are the Spratlys, which are claimed in whole by those three and in part by Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Control over Scarborough Shoal to the northeast is disputed by China, Taiwan, and the Philippines. And Pratas Reef, just off Chinas coast, is held by Taiwan and claimed by China. There are also many underwater features that dont belong to any of the island groups, though China and Taiwan claim them anyway.

The second set of disputes covers the water, seabed, and airspace around those islands. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam claim offshore rights based on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Those entitlements generally include a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea and economic rights over water and seabed 200 miles from the coast.).

Figure I.1 South China Sea islands and nine-dash line. Created using Mapcreator and OpenStreetMap.

The United States, like other outside parties, remains neutral on the sovereignty disputes. It has little interest in wading into historical arguments over who first administered which rock or reef. But on maritime disputes, Washington has consistently voiced opposition to excessive claims. That is especially true of the nine-dash line. And many other non-claimants, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, India, and members of the European Union, have joined in that criticism. But why should they care? What makes arguments over water and seabed half a world away so important to the United States and like-minded partners?

For decades, U.S. policymakers have been drawn time and again to two abiding interests in the South China Sea.

Freedom of the Seas

The first and oldest American interest at stake is the freedom of the seas and maritime law. U.S. leaders have seen maintenance of the free seas as vital to national prosperity and security for more than two centuries. Few interests have been as abiding over the course of American history. This commitment drove the young United States to launch its first military forays abroad. And by the middle of the nineteenth century, it carried the U.S. Navy across the Pacific for the first time to defend the perceived rights of American merchants and missionaries. It is impossible to understand U.S. interests in the South China Sea absent its historical relationship with the freedom of the seas and the international law defining it.

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