Jayanta Ghosal - Mamata: Beyond 2021

To the memory of Barun Sengupta, my first editor.

Contents

T HE FIRST TIME I saw Mamata Banerjee was in Jadavpura neighbourhood and a Parliamentary constituency in Kolkatain 1984.

She was the Congress candidate against the CPI(M) leader Somnath Chatterjee, whom she went on to defeat, earning the reputation as a giant-killer. Thirty-eight years have passed since then, a period in which Mamata Banerjee has undertaken a long journey. She has won the Lok Sabha election seven times. She has been a Union minister several times, and is currently on her third successive innings as chief minister of West Bengal. And she has been at the centre of controversy almost throughout.

All relationships have their ups and downs, but mine with her has flowed uninterruptedly. As a journalist I have accompanied her to Rome and the Vatican for Mother Teresas canonization, where we marched in a group along the black cobblestones, singing. In Darjeeling, I have been forced to walk with her from Raj Bhavan to Tiger Hill, arriving out of breath and then having a cup of tea together. From her car, I have seen the blue-and-white brightness of Kolkata in the evening, as she pointed out all the beautification initiatives in the city.

On that drive, as we were passing Babughat on the banks of the Hooghly, she spotted some old banners and posters about the Gangasagar fair. A temporary camp had been set up at the spot for pilgrims from Bihar on their way to the fairMamata Banerjee had paid them a visit and chatted with them. But now she was upset because it had been a while, and the banners and posters should have been cleared. At once she called Sovan Chatterjee, who was then the Mayor of Kolkata, and said, Kanan [the mayors nickname], why havent the posters been removed? The Gangasagar fair ended a long time ago. They must be cleared out by tonight.

This is how Mamatas do-it-now mentality works, even though her style lacks sophistication. Sometimes she also runs a court rather than a formal office. She is surrounded by administrative officers, political leaders keep dropping in, the phone is always ringing, several rounds of tea are being brought in, and every now and then she jumps to her feet and walks about, for Mamata never remains seated for more than half an hour at a stretch. She has been assaulted several times during protests and has a permanent orthopaedic belt around her waist. It doesnt stop her from working. She even walks on the treadmill with the belt on.

In short, Mamata is perpetually bursting with vitality and vigour. Her appetite for work is no way diminished even at the age of sixty-seven. She always wants to achieve more, and whenever there is a setback, she is a wounded tigress, taking on an unfamiliar personawhich, too, I have seen.

I was not sure about the results of the 2021 Assembly elections, but Mamata Banerjee had told me, Mark my words, well get more than 200 seats. I had felt it was a classic case of the general exuding confidence before the battle so as not to demoralize the troops. While I did not think the BJP would dethrone her, I did feel it would make a serious dent in Mamatas vote and seat count. But Mamata herself had never been in doubt. And the results proved her right.

Now she has a long journey ahead to 2024, when the next Lok Sabha elections will be held. Its a journey shes planning in a slow, calculated manner. Unlike the period before 2019, she now has strategist Prashant Kishor on her side. After the massive victory for Trinamool in the Assembly elections and subsequent by-elections, and Mamatas own thumping win in Bhawanipur to wipe out the pain of a controversial defeat in Nandigram, she is now looking ahead. In other words, she is working towards taking Trinamool national.

Mamata Banerjee is known for accomplishing what no Congress leader in West Bengal, from Pranab Mukherjee to Priya Ranjan Dasmunsi, from Somen Mitra to Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, couldwhich was to unseat the CPI(M)-led Left Front after thirty-four years. And now, having become chief minister for the third successive time, there is nothing wrong if Mamata harbours plans for a role in national politics. After all, unlike Narendra Modi, who went from the state of Gujarat to the Centre and was a first-time MP when he became prime minister, Mamata started her politics in Delhi. She was a seven-time MP before she became chief minister.

Still, Mamata also knows that she must balance her national ambition with consolidating Trinamools position in the state, so that the BJP, which made significant inroads by increasing its tally of MLAs from three to seventy-sevenalthough it subsequently lost some of them to resignations and defectionscannot improve its position further. It did win as many as eighteen seats out of forty-two in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, after all.

What are the biggest challenges for Mamata Banerjee on this road from 2021 to 2024? One of them is the idea about her that has been broadcast by the BJPto the effect that she is partial to Muslims, which will make it difficult for her to be a unanimous choice of the majority at the national level. The BJP, aware of her potential as a national leader, has also pointed out that she has campaigned against outsiders in the state elections, which, by her own logic, makes her an outsider at the national level.

To disprove these theories and establish her acceptance at the all-India level, Mamata will have to make herself popular to the majority not just in West Bengal, as she already has, but also across the country. She must demonstrate, project and establish that she is also a leader of the Hindu community. In using the word outsider, she had protested against the imposition of an un-Bengali culture on Bengal. She has to explain this clearly, and turn her Joy Bangla slogan to Jai Hindustan to indicate her objective.

Of course, the new configurations and a restructuring of the UPA will emerge after the 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. For now, Mamatas objective is to present herself as the fulcrum of Opposition unity and a credible alternative as a national leader.

This book covers Mamata Banerjees possible journey from 2021 to 2024. I explore her own growth and politics, how she stopped the BJP juggernaut to win the West Bengal Assembly elections in 2021, her relationship with the BJP, the CPI(M) and the Congress, the roles of the Election Commission, the governor and the paramilitary forces, and the politics of religion, language, culture and caste. Mamata is probably the only leader at present who can beat the masters of alternative reality, Amit Shah and Narendra Modi, at their own game, something that the Congress has failed to do since 2014. But the question is, can Mamata replicate this at the national level, as she did in West Bengal in 2021? This book tries to decode her roadmap.

Books often work differently from reality. For the purpose of analysis and understanding, a book breaks down a phenomenon into different themes and treats each of them distinctly. But in reality, all these themes intermingle in the flow of actual politics; they are not watertight compartments. This book, therefore, does not treat them as silos, which is why the elements of the different chapters sometimes overlap.

I have tried to arrive at the truth not through a linear narrative, but through a collage, a mosaic, an interplay of different elements. There is no other suitable way to capture Mamata Banerjees energy. The events in this book end in November 2021. Reality may overtake them by the time youre reading the book, but the directions indicated here are the ones that Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress are likely to take in their journey to 2024.