Geoff Hiscock - Earth Wars: The Battle for Global Resources

Contents

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Maps

Africa

Asia

Southeast Asia

Australia

Middle East

Europe

North America

South America

Introduction

What we are experiencing with the transformation of China is a once in a century or more event. It really is the start of a global rebalancing a rebalancing that will continue to unfold over many decades.

BHP Billiton Chairman Jac Nasser, 9 May 2011

Six hundred years ago, China neither needed nor wanted anything from the West. It was the Middle Kingdom, the centre of the world, the seat of all that a civilization could possibly need to advance and prosper. India viewed itself through a similar prismone rich in culture, religion, and resources. There was trading, of course: seafarers from the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf, the east coast of Africa, and the islands of Southeast Asia bought and sold all manner of spices, timber, textiles, gems, and opium along a route that stretched from Venice to Calicut in India and on to Guangzhou in China.

Then came the great age of European exploration, as fleets from Portugal, Spain, Holland, and England sailed out into the oceans in search of new worlds to conquer. By the twentieth century, China and India were supplicants to the dominant colonialists of Europe, America, and Japan, seemingly beaten by their technology and their industrial might. After decades spent throwing off the colonial yoke and then trying to catch up economically, the two Asian giants are now poised to become the drivers of global growth in the first half of the twenty-first century. Demography is helping shape their destiny: A massive population base of 2.5 billion people, all eager to savour the full fruits of modern living, means there is increasing competition for scarce resources.

Whether it is lithium from a salt pan in the Andes, gas from the Caspian Sea, oil from a deepwater well off the coast of Brazil, coal from Africas Zambezi River region, iron ore from the Australian outback, potash from Canada, or uranium from a Kazakhstan mine, China and India are keen to ensure the security of their future resources supply. Renewable energy from multiple sources and technologies can help, which is why the Asian duo are among the worlds leading developers and users of solar, wind, and hydro power. Along with their urgent quest for control of natural resource projects around the globe, China and India know they must better nurture what they have at home. Each has substantial energy, food, and water supply capabilities, but pollution, contamination, and overuse are taking their toll of farmlands, river systems, and air quality.

In the race for global resources, tensions inevitably emerge. There are flashpoints everywherehigh food prices, for example, had a role to play in the violent political upheavals of the 20102011 Arab Spring. The world needs the sea lanes to stay open for trade, but maritime boundaries are a constant source of friction, and piracy adds an unwelcome element of danger for mariners. The oil and gas reserves of the South China Sea, for example, give an extra edge to Chinas territorial disputes with Japan, Vietnam, and other Asian neighbours over island groups such as the Senkaku, the Paracels, and the Spratlys. India has its own territorial issues with China over Aksai Chin on the Tibetan Plateau, and resource-rich Arunachal Pradesh in the eastern Himalayas. In 1953, Indias then-Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru declared after a trip to China that the Chinese people cherished in their hearts the greatest of love for India, and wished to maintain the friendliest of relations with it. Nine years later, the two countries would be at war. While ChinaIndia economic ties have strengthened considerably since then, the edginess continues. At the same time, the United States, Europe, Russia, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, and half a dozen big, emerging economies such as Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, Mexico, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia have their own interests to promote and protect.

On the political front, there are multiple changes ahead among the biggest economies. In China, Xi Jinping is likely to become chief of the Communist Party in October 2012 and president in 2013, with Li Keqiang his likely running mate as premier. Barack Obama may well be a one-term U.S. president, while Indias Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will remain until 2014 before a possible transition to Rahul Gandhi. Angela Merkel may run again for the German chancellors job in 2013, and we have already seen massive changes in other European administrations such as Italy and Greece in 2011. As for Japan, who knows? Since the end of the Koizumi administration in 2006, it has had six prime ministers. There will be a new president in South Korea in 2013, and in Indonesia in 2014. In Turkey, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogans term runs until 2015, as does that of Brazils President Dilma Rousseff. In Russia, Vladimir Putin could be ensconced in the leadership until 2024.