Richard DAveni - The Pan-Industrial Revolution: How New Manufacturing Titans Will Transform the World

Copyright 2018 by Richard DAveni

All rights reserved

For information about permission to reproduce selections from this book, write to or to Permissions, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company, 3 Park Avenue, 19th Floor, New York, New York 10016.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: DAveni, Richard A., author.

Title: The pan-industrial revolution : how new manufacturing titans will transform the world / Richard DAveni.

Description: Boston : Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Description based on print version record and CIP data provided by publisher; resource not viewed.

Identifiers: LCCN 2018012276 (print) | LCCN 2018013427 (ebook) | ISBN 9781328955913 (ebook) | ISBN 9781328955906 (hardback) ISBN 9781328606693 (international edition)

Subjects: LCSH: Manufacturing industriesTechnological innovations. | Three-dimensional printingEconomic aspects. | International trade. | BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Commerce. | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Industries / Manufacturing Industries.

Classification: LCC HD9720.5 (ebook) | LCC HD9720.5 .D38 2018 (print) | DDC 338/.064dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018012276

Cover design by Brian Moore

3D typographic rendering by Brian Levy

Author photograph Tuck School of Business

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To my grandparents, Antonio and Rosa DAveni:
thank you for your bravery in coming to America.

And to my parents, Anthony and Marion DAveni:
thank you for all you did to make me a better person.

The four of you taught me the meaning of family.
Ill love you all for the rest of my days.

May you rest in peace.

As a professor at the Tuck Business School at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshirethe worlds oldest graduate school of business and still one of its most prestigiousIm not accustomed to playing the role of amateur sleuth. When I am engaged in researching an emerging business trend, I can generally call up any number of Fortune 500 CEOs and get a warm reception. And while these executives often ask me to keep some details of their businesses confidential, they are usually eager and proud to share with me their newest technological breakthroughs and cutting-edge strategies.

But for several years, as I worked to document and analyze what Ive come to believe is the most important new strategic business development in the world, I suddenly ran up against a virtual stone wall of silence, evasion, and occasional misdirection from the corporate leaders who were most deeply involved. Of course, rather than discouraging me from pursuing the story, this unfamiliar secrecy only deepened my conviction that this trend is a real game-changerthe kind of epochal business shift that happens only once a century.

It all started when I became intrigued about the new manufacturing technology known as 3D printing.

Of course, everyone has heard of 3D printingone of the latest cool technologies to break through from geekdom into the popular consciousness. But many people still associate it with cute plastic trinkets or, at best, the design and production of small prototype products as models to be adapted for real manufacturing processes. They do not realize that 3D printing is just part of a broader range of revolutionary methods known collectively as additive manufacturing (AM); that AM is now being adapted to a wide range of materials, product types, and purposes; that many of the most important manufacturing businesses are beginning the transition to using AM as a major production method; and that big new industries are already being launched with AM as their primary foundation.

As someone who has long been fascinated by the impact of new technologies on markets, economies, and business strategy, Ive spent the last several years closely following the development of AM. So you can imagine my excitement when in 2015 Meg Whitman, then the CEO of one of the companies that is driving the spread of AM, invited me to visit one of Hewlett Packards major facilities in the beautiful Spanish city of Barcelona.

Ill never forget the day I spent in the garage with Scott Schiller, the leader of HPs research and development effort in the field of multi-jet fusion (MJF) printers. Scott took me to a large door with a 2D printed image of wood planks and metal hinges designed to resemble the garage door behind which the proverbial startup company would be launched. But behind this door was no ordinary garage, but rather a massive space where more than four hundred engineers with advanced degrees were working on breakthrough technologies for both 2D and 3D printers. Among other things, they were developing advances to perfect the consistency, durability, efficiency, and affordability of 3D printing technologyall in an effort to eliminate the last remaining quality gap between AM and older manufacturing methods.

For example, I visited a suite of four testing rooms where multi-jet fusion 3D printers were being put through their paces. One room, decorated with color images of tropical plants and animals, was artificially conditioned to simulate rainforest conditions of heat and high humidity; a second room was as hot, dry, and dusty as a desert landscape and decorated accordingly; and a third was frosty cold and lined with photos of Arctic icebergs. The printers in these rooms were being tested repeatedly to ensure consistent product quality no matter what the environmental conditions. In the fourth room, a giant robotic arm had been programmed to grab a printer and shake it violently, simulating the rough handling it might receive when being moved from one office to another, or during overseas shipping. Before and afterward, the printers parts would be measured to see whether theyd shifted or bent even a micrometer, and the quality of products printed would also be tested.

During my tour, I also got to see new 3D printing technologies in development. I saw experimental printers being designed to print plastic parts that are rigid on one end, flexible on the otherideal for eyeglass frames, for example. I saw other printers testing new methods to produce plastics that contain additives to enhance properties such as color, strength, rigidity, and porosityessential when manufacturing tools or parts to be used in extreme conditions, for instance. And I saw other new processes in the works that Im not yet free to divulge.

Its obvious that HP is determined to play a leading role in making 3D printing a major factor in the future of manufacturing. And industry experts arent betting against themeven though there are already dozens of other companies, many of them armed with amazing new technologies, that are competing with HP for spots at the top of the AM world.

The fact is that Scott Schiller and the rest of the now spun-off HP, Inc., may be the only people in the world who have already successfully digitized a pre-existing industrynamely, traditional 2D printing, in which layers of ink or pigment are laid down on paper or other materials to form words or images. With that track record, its not surprising that the engineers and executives at HP are confident that they will succeed in revolutionizing manufacturing in much the same way.

In truth, the process has already started. In 2016, HP launched its first generation of MJF industrial 3D printers, with pre-orders for hundreds of machines they expect to fulfill over the next two years. Within months, HP was expanding its manufacturing capacity to keep up with the burgeoning demand. In November 2017, the company introduced the MJF 4210, a second-generation model with even more remarkable capabilities. Among other benefits, the 4210 has enabled mind-boggling improvements in the speed and efficiency of 3D printing. For example, compare MJF printing with selective laser sintering (SLS), one of the most commonly used 3D printing methods. In the same time it takes to make 1,000 gears using SLS, an MJF printer can make 12,600 gears.