Conrad Waters - Seaforth World Naval Review 2011

Note on Tables: Tables are provided to give a broad indication of fleet sizes and other key information but should be regarded only as a general guide. For example, many published sources differ significantly on the principal particulars of ships, whilst even governmental information can be subject to contradiction. In general terms, the data contained in these tables is based on official information updated as of June 2010, supplemented by reference to a wide range of secondary and corporate sources, such as shipbuilder websites.

If a man does not know to what port he is sailing, no wind is favourable, wrote the Roman philoso-pher Seneca the Younger, one-time tutor to the Emperor Nero, in the first century AD. This opening quotation to the 2011 edition of the Seaforth World Naval Review is particularly relevant to the leading Western navies as they grapple with increasing budgetary pressures in the aftermath of the global credit crunch. Both the United States Navy (USN) and British Royal Navy, in particular, face an era of potentially severe austerity as their respective governments face up to the imperative of tackling crippling budget deficits. The way that their leaders and, more importantly, their political masters respond to this challenge could have a significant impact on the de facto Anglo-Saxon command of the seas that has been a key force in shaping global history over the past 200-odd years.

Of the two fleets, the USN seems at first glance to be more advanced in reshaping its priorities to revised financial realities. The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review released on 1 February 2010 suggested a largely unchanged naval force structure up until 2015 against an overall re-emphasising of efforts towards winning current wars and being better able to deal with asymmetric threats. Decisions have been taken to cap or cancel construction of high-technology but hugely expensive surface combatants such as the DDG-1000 destroyer and follow-on CG(X) cruiser in favour of extended production of proven and cheaper designs, thereby making the future shipbuilding programme more affordable. Whilst this approach suggests progress has been made towards the goal of maintaining fleet numbers at a time when funding is tight, it may well prove inadequate in the medium term. As shown by Table 1.0.1, US military expenditure still remains far in excess of all other nations under most measurements. This situation seems unsustainable given the stretched state of US finances. Indeed, in a speech at the Navy League Sea-Air-Space Exposition at New Harbour, Maryland, on 3 May 2010, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates questioned the current emphasis on carrier strike groups and high-end amphibious capabilities in an era of increasingly finite resources. It therefore seems that more fundamental changes in USN posture might emerge over the next few years. These are likely to include increased reliance on inter-service co-operation through ideas such as the USAF/USN Air-Sea Battle concept, as well as a further rebalancing of forces towards more cost-effective vessels better able to operate in the littoral.