Paul R. Abramson et al. - Change and Continuity in the 2012 and 2014 Elections

• Paul R. Abramson
• Michigan State University
• John H. Aldrich
• Duke University
• Brad T. Gomez
• Florida State University
• David W. Rohde
• Duke University

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In our study of the 2012 elections, we rely on a wide variety of evidence. Because the bulk of our analysis focuses on individuals voting decisions, we rely extensively on survey evidencefour surveys in particular. In studying voter turnout, we employ the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The CPS provides information on the registration and voting behavior of more than 133,000 individuals from more than 80,000 households. In examining voting patterns, we rely heavily on a survey of more than 26,000 voters interviewed as they exited the voting booths; this survey, conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of news organizations, is commonly referred to as the pool poll. We employ pool poll data in our analysis of the 2014 congressional midterm elections as well. These data were also collected by Edison Research and reflect a combination of exit and telephone interviews with more than 19,000 voters. In studying the party loyalties of the American electorate, we also analyze data from the General Social Survey (GSS) conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, which measured party identification twenty-seven times from 1972 through 2008, usually relying on about 1,500 respondents.

Our main source of survey data is the 2012 American National Election Studies (ANES) survey based on 2,054 face-to-face interviews conducted before the 2012 election and 1,929 interviews conducted after the election, using the version of the data released for analysis on June 10, 2013. This 2012 ANES is part of an ongoing series funded mainly by the National Science Foundation. These surveys, carried out originally by a team of scholars at the University of Michigan, began with a small study of the 1948 election; the first major study was in 1952. The ANES investigative team has studied every subsequent presidential election, as well as all thirteen midterm elections from 1954 to 2002. The 2012 ANES was conducted jointly by Stanford University and the University of Michigan. In the course of our book, we use data from all thirty surveys conducted between 1948 and 2012.

The ANES data are available to scholars throughout the world. Although we are not responsible for the data collection, we are responsible for our analyses. The scholars and staff at the ANES are responsible for neither our analyses nor our interpretation of these data. Similarly, the organizers and researchers of the CPS, GSS, and national pool poll bear no responsibility for our analyses or interpretation.