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Farrell David M. - The post-crisis Irish voter : voting behaviour in the Irish 2016 General Election

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Farrell David M. The post-crisis Irish voter : voting behaviour in the Irish 2016 General Election

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This is the definitive study of the Irish general election of 2016 - the most dramatic election in a generation, which resulted in the worst electoral outcome for Irelands established parties, the most fractionalized party system in the history of the state, and the emergence of new parties and groups. These outcomes follow a pattern seen across a number of Western Europes established democracies in which the deep crisis of the Great Recession has wreaked havoc on party systems. The objective of this book is to assess this most extraordinary of Irish elections both in its Irish and wider cross-national context. With contributions from leading scholars on Irish elections, and using a unique dataset - the Irish National Election Study 2016 - this volume explores voting patterns at Irelands first post crisis election and it considers the implications for the electoral landscape and politics in Ireland.

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The post-crisis Irish voter

T HE P OST-CRISIS I RISH V OTER Voting behaviour in the Irish 2016 general - photo 1

T HE P OST-CRISIS I RISH V OTER

Voting behaviour in the Irish 2016 general election

Edited by Michael Marsh, David M. Farrell and Theresa Reidy

MANCHESTER UNIVERSITY PRESS

Copyright Manchester University Press 2018

While copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in Manchester University Press, copyright in individual chapters belongs to their respective authors, and no chapter may be reproduced wholly or in part without the express permission in writing of both author and publisher.

Published by Manchester University Press

Altrincham Street, Manchester M1 7JA

www.manchesteruniversitypress.co.uk

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for

ISBN 978 1 5261 2264 3 hardback

First published 2018

The publisher has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for any external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

Typeset by

Deanta Global Publishing Services, Dublin, Ireland

Contents

Figures

Tables

Appendix tables

David Barrett is Researcher at the Geary Institute in University College Dublin. He undertook his PhD research at Trinity College Dublin, where he examined infighting within political parties. He has a long-standing interest in political parties, electoral behaviour and public opinion and has written on Irish and Greek politics.

Rory Costello is Lecturer in Politics at the University of Limerick. His research focuses on EU politics, Irish politics, political parties and democratic representation. He has (co)-authored articles in journals such as Party Politics , West European Politics , Electoral Studies , Journal of European Public Policy , European Union Politics and American Journal of Political Science .

Michael Courtney is Postdoctoral Researcher in the School of Law and Government at Dublin City University. He currently works on VOX-POL, a European Union Framework Programme 7 (FP7)-funded network of excellence, studying violent online political extremism. He has published on political parties in the Journal of Legislative Studies and Irish Political Studies , and will release a co-authored book on political communications in Irish elections with Manchester University Press in 2018 with Michael Breen, Iain McMenamin, Eoin OMalley and Kevin Rafter.

Kevin Cunningham is Lecturer in Statistics at Dublin Institute of Technology. He has published a number of book chapters and peer-reviewed journal articles on public policy, political parties, elections and campaigns. Kevin has worked for a number of political parties in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Australia and France. He runs his own research company and his work has been published in all major Irish newspapers and broadcasters.

Johan A. Elkink is Associate Professor in Politics at the School of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin. He specializes in quantitative methods in political science, particularly spatial econometrics and their applications in democratization and voting behaviour. He has co-authored reports on voting behaviour in the Irish referendums on the Lisbon Treaty and co-edited The Act of Voting (Routledge). His work has appeared in the Journal of Politics , Comparative Political Studies , European Journal of Political Research and Electoral Studies .

David M. Farrell , MRIA, is Head of Politics and International Relations at University College Dublin. A specialist in the study of representation, elections and parties, his most recent books include Political Parties and Democratic Linkage (co-authored, Oxford University Press, 2011) and A Conservative Revolution? Electoral Change in Twenty-First Century Ireland (co-edited, Oxford University Press, 2017). His current work is focused on constitutional deliberation, and in that capacity he is the research leader of the ongoing Irish Citizens Assembly.

Michael Gallagher , MRIA, is Head of the Department of Political Science and Professor of Comparative Politics at Trinity College, University of Dublin. He is co-editor of Politics in the Republic of Ireland (6th edn, Abingdon, 2018), Representative Government in Modern Europe (5th edn, New York, 2011), The Politics of Electoral Systems (Oxford, 2008), Days of Blue Loyalty: The Politics of Membership of the Fine Gael Party (Dublin, 2002) and a number of books in the How Ireland Voted series. In 1989, he devised the least squares index, the standard measure of electoral system disproportionality.

John Garry is Professor of Political Behaviour in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics at Queens University Belfast. He has published widely on the themes of elections, public opinion and parties. His latest book is Consociation and Voting in Northern Ireland: Party Competition and Electoral Behaviour , published in 2016 by University of Pennsylvania Press. He was also a co-author of the prize-winning book The Irish Voter , published in 2008 by Manchester University Press.

Michael Marsh , MRIA, is Emeritus Professor of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin. The author of a wide variety of articles on parties and electoral behaviour, he has co-edited each of the last five books in the How Ireland Voted series, and has been a principal investigator for the Irish National Election Study since its foundation. He was co-author of the first book arising out of those studies, The Irish Voter (Manchester, 2008), and co-edited the next one, A Conservative Revolution? (Oxford, 2017).

Gail McElroy is Professor in Political Science at Trinity College, Dublin. Recent published work explores party competition in the Republic of Ireland, voting behaviour in preferential voting systems and political group cohesion in the European Parliament.

Eoin OMalley is Associate Professor at the School of Law and Government, Dublin City University. His research interests broadly relate to Irish politics including cabinet government, policy-making and leadership. He is author of over forty peer-reviewed publications, and co-editor of One Party Dominance: Fianna Fil and Irish Politics 19262016 (Routledge, 2017).

Stephen Quinlan is Senior Researcher at the GESIS Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences, Mannheim and Project Manager of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), a study that explores electoral behaviour in over forty states globally. His research focuses on comparative electoral behaviour and public opinion including turnout, elections, referendums and social medias impact on politics. His research has been published in Information Communication and Society , Electoral Studies , and Irish Political Studies .

Theresa Reidy is Lecturer in the Department of Government and Politics at University College Cork. Her research interests lie in the areas of political institutions and electoral behaviour and her recent work has been published in Electoral Studies , Parliamentary Affairs and Politics . She is leading a European Commission-funded project on voter facilitation and engagement practices and is a co-convenor of the PSAI specialist group Voters, Parties and Elections.

Jane Suiter is Associate Professor in the School of Communications at Dublin City University. She is an expert on communication, deliberation and participation and is co-principal investigator on the Irish Citizen Assembly, having also worked on other deliberative events such as the Constitutional Convention and We the Citizens. She is communications director of a COST project on populist political communication. She is also co-convener of the PSAI specialist group Voters, Parties and Elections, with an interest in direct democracy and referendums.

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