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Philip Cowley - The British General Election of 2015

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Philip Cowley The British General Election of 2015

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The British General Election of 2015 is a must-read for anyone wanting to know how the action unfolded in the most unpredictable election for a generation. Drawing on hundreds of confidential interviews with all the key players, it offers a compelling insiders guide to the elections background, campaign, and the results which led to the formation of the first majority Conservative government in eighteen years. Designed to appeal to everyone from Westminster insiders, politics students and the wider general public, this is the authoritative account of the 2015 election. Continuing a proud Palgrave Macmillan tradition, The British General Election of 2015 is the 19th edition and celebrates the 70th year of this prestigious series. ** Review The authors are experienced observers and writers on British politics and elections, with Dennis Kavanagh having co-authored every election volume since 1974. The format of The British General Election of 2015 is based upon a chronology, with the majority of chapters written by the co-authors . The British General election of 2015 should be perused by all politicians and campaigners, but especially Labour . (Keith Simpson, Total Politics, totalpolitics.com, January, 2016) ...the Bible of General Elections. David Dimbleby, BBC ...a riveting read... Forget the Blair and Mandelson works - this is easily the best political book of the year. Mike Smithson, PoliticalBetting.com Its popular academic writing at its best, combining a clear narrative (using anecdotes and quotes garnered from more than 300 background interviews) with lots of solid, meaty number-crunching. Andrew Sparrow, The Guardian Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley have penned a political thriller.... The book is distinguished by the quality of its sources: the ministers, aides and strategists who open up to these academics in a way they might not to journalists. The Observer Indispensable Matthew dAncona, The Telegraph ...magisterial... David Mills, Newstatesman.com excellent and indispensable nextleft.org Mandelson and Blairs books will get all the attention, but if you want real insight into the last election, Kavanagh and Cowley look like theyre on the money. Paul Waugh, London Evening Standard required reading for anyone interested in British politics Progress A British General Election is not over until this book appears. Peter Hennessy, FBA, Attlee Professor of Contemporary History, Queen Mary, University of London, UK The quality of the analysis is as sharp as ever Lord Adonis, Fabian Review The original and still the best. Kavanagh and Cowley use their unparalleled access to Britains top politicians and their backroom staff to produce an account of this historic election, and the formation of the coalition that followed it, which rings true at every level. Authoritative, fascinating, and often wryly amusing, this book once again sets the standard. Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Sussex University, author of The Conservative Party from Thatcher to Cameron The gold standard of political writing. If you want to know what really happened in the 2010 General Election, look no further. This is the first draft of history, fresh and authoritative ... our first TV debates, the election that never was in 2007, the whole drama is explained with wit and authority. Gary Gibbon, Political Editor, Channel 4 As lively as the best journalism and as rigorous as the best academic treatise, the ... series fully deserve their reputation as the best books on national elections anywhere in the world. In order to unravel the full story of the 2010 election and its extraordinary aftermath, Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley have talked at length to insiders at the heart of each partys campaign and it shows. The result is a book that fully maintains the dazzling standards set over half a century by the incomparable David Butler. Peter Kellner, President, YouGov The General Election series of books has become an institution. Dennis Kavanagh is one of the wisest minds patrolling the borders of academic politics and contemporary history and Philip Cowley is a brilliant choice to join him in maintaining the series. He is one of the sharpest chroniclers of Westminster politics: I admire his independence of judgement and willingness to puncture bubbles of media myth about the way that Parliament and Government works. John Rentoul, Chief Political Editor, Independent on Sunday The 2010 election was like no other. There is still much to learn about what happened during the campaign and Cowley and Kavanagh lay out all the facts in clear, comprehensible detail. Access to sources at the very top of the political parties ensures this book is essential reading if you want to know what really went on behind the scenes. Andrew Hawkins, Chief Executive, ComRes The 65-year-old series of books on British General Elections has become the Wisden of politics essential reading for anyone wanting to know what happened during the campaigns and the significance of the outcome. Peter Riddell, Senior Fellow, The Institute for Government and former Chief Political Commentator of The Times About the Author Philip Cowley is Professor of Parliamentary Government at the University of Nottingham, UK. His many publications include The Rebels: How Blair Mislaid His Majority and Conscience and Parliament. Dennis Kavanagh is Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool, UK. His extensive works include Thatcherism and British Politics, British Politics: Continuities and Change, and he has been involved in every one of the Palgrave Macmillan election studies since February 1974.

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The British General Election of 2015

Praise for previous editions

The Bible of General Elections. David Dimbleby, BBC

Its popular academic writing at its best, combining a clear narrative (using anecdotes and quotes garnered from more than 300 background interviews) with lots of solid, meaty number-crunching. The Guardian

Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley have penned a political thriller The book is distinguished by the quality of its sources: the ministers, aides and strategists who open up to these academics in a way they might not to journalists. The Observer

Indispensable. Matthew dAncona, The Telegraph

Mandelson and Blairs books will get all the attention, but if you want real insight into the last election, Kavanagh and Cowley look like theyre on the money. London Evening Standard

The quality of the analysis is as sharp as ever. Fabian Review

a riveting read this is easily the best political book of the year. PoliticalBetting.com

a formidable achievement The studies have become by now almost part of our democratic fabric. The Listener

The best series anywhere on national elections. Annals of American Academy of Political and Social Science

Other books in this series

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1945
R. B. McCallum and Alison Readman

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1950
H. G. Nicholas

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1951
David Butler

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1955
David Butler

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1959
David Butler and Richard Rose

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1964
David Butler and Anthony King

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1966
David Butler and Anthony King

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1970
David Butler and Michael Pinto-Duschinsky

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF FEBRUARY 1974
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF OCTOBER 1974
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1979
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1983
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1987
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1992
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1997
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 2001
David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 2005
Dennis Kavanagh and David Butler

THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 2010
Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley

The British General
Election of 2015

Philip Cowley

Professor of Parliamentary Government, Queen Mary University of London, UK

Dennis Kavanagh

Emeritus Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool, UK

The British General Election of 2015 - image 1

The British General Election of 2015 - image 2

Editorial matter and selection Philip Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh 2016
Individual chapters Respective authors 2016

All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission.

No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 610 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.

Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages.

The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published 2016 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN

Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.

Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martins Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.

Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world.

Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.

ISBN 9781137366108 hardback
ISBN 9781137366139 paperback

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

To Robert John Cowley,
whose early arrival almost derailed publication

Contents

List of Tables

List of Figures

List of Illustrations

Photographs

Party Advertisements

Cartoons

Psephology [Martin Rowson, The Guardian , 26 May 2014]
Martin Rowson

Come to Crosby Country [Steve Bell, The Guardian , 18 July 2013]
Steve Bell

The Higher Politics [Martin Rowson, The Guardian , 19 November 2012]
Martin Rowson

I have remembered to mention the deficit [Christian Adams, Daily Telegraph , 12 December 2014]
Adams/ The Telegraph

Doomed but chipper [Steve Bell, The Guardian , 7 January 2014]
Steve Bell

Old Allure [Christian Adams, Daily Telegraph , 6 April 2015]
Adams/ The Telegraph

Organise [Steve Bell, The Guardian , 6 January 2015]
Steve Bell

If the election has just begun [Matt, Daily Telegraph , 31 March 2015]
Matt/ The Telegraph

Theyre off [Howard McWilliam, The Week , 4 April 2015]
Howard McWilliam

Match the Clothes to the Leader [Christian Adams, Daily Telegraph , 14 April 2015]
Adams/ The Telegraph )

The Seven Dwarfs [Christian Adams, Daily Telegraph , 2 April 2015
Adams/ The Telegraph

Take us to Ed Miliband [Matt, Daily Telegraph , 2 May 2015]
Matt/ The Telegraph

Today is SATURDAY? [Matt, Daily Telegraph , 9 May 2015]
Matt/ The Telegraph

Heres your tea [Matt, Daily Telegraph , 17 April 2015]
Matt/ The Telegraph

Ill only agree to do this debate [Morten Morland, The Times , 12 January 2015]
Morten Morland

Labour isnt working [Bob, Daily Telegraph , 9 May 2015]
Bob/ The Telegraph

List of Plates

Bound between pages 254 and 255

Preface

This volume is the nineteenth in a series of books which originated in 1945 in Nuffield College, Oxford. The originator of the series Ronald McCallum had always been infuriated by what he saw as the constant misinterpretation of the 1918 election, and he wanted to place on record the events of the 1945 contest before similar partisan myths took root. Thus began what is now the longest-running national election series in the world. This is the second volume in the series where neither of the authors is based at Nuffield, but the aim remains the same: to create an accurate and, as far as possible, impartial account and explanation of the general election.

For this volume, we conducted over 300 interviews with key players from all the main parties, and unattributed quotes in the volume are taken from those interviews. People gave generously and willingly of their time, and were very open with us, and we are extremely grateful to them. We deliberately do not list them here, as many spoke to us on conditions of strict confidentiality, but we hope they will recognise the picture we paint even if not all of them will agree with our conclusions. Some also agreed to look at draft chapters, helping to suggest improvements and challenging our judgements, and again we are very grateful, as we are to the many friends and colleagues who also read early drafts of the book. All responsibility for any remaining errors rests with us alone.

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