Stevenson William J. - ISE EBook Online Access for Operations Management

page 858

CHAPTER 2: Competitiveness, Strategy, and Productivity

1. Anniversary = 37.5 meals per worker

   Wedding = 40 meals per worker

2. Smaller crew sizes had the higher productivity.

3. Week 1: 3.03

   Week 2: 2.99

   Week 3: 2.89

   Week 4: 2.84

4. 1. Before: Labor productivity = 16 carts per worker per hour

      After: Labor productivity = 21 carts per worker per hour

   2. Before: Multifactor productivity = .89 cart per dollar

      After: Multifactor productivity = .93 cart per dollar

5. 11.1%

6. 4.44%

1. Current: $5; A = $6.30; B = $6.71

CHAPTER 3: Forecasting

1. 1. blueberry = 33, cinnamon = 35, cupcakes = 47

   2. Demand did not exceed supply.

2. 1. (1) 20, (2) 19, (3) 20.4, (4) 19.26, (5) 20.86

3. 1. 88.16 percent

   2. 88.54 percent

4. 1. 20.75

   2. 20.72

5. 1. Increasing by 15,000 bottles per year

   2. 170 (i.e., 170,000 bottles)

6. 500 20t

7. 1. Ft = 208.44 + 19.00t

   2. 588.44, 607.44

   3. Week 31.13

   1. Ft = 195.47 + 7.00t

      F16 = 307.47

      F17 = 314.17

      F18 = 321.47

      F19 = 328.47

   2. 307.22

1. Q1: 127.6; Q2: 143.5; Q3: 105; Q4: 273.65; Q1 = 275

   1. Fri. = 0.756, Sat. = 1.341, Sun. = 0.874

   2. Fri. = 0.756, Sat. = 1.341, Sun. = 0.874

1. Day	a. Relative	b. Relative
   	0.901	0.887
   	0.838	0.831
   	0.884	0.876
   	1.020	1.022
   	1.430	1.438
   	1.480	1.483
   	0.450	0.464

   1. 

1. 1. MSE	MAD
      Forecast 1	10.44	2.8
      Forecast 2	42.44	3.6
      Naive		10.7

   2. MAPE1 = .36%

      MAPE2 = .46%

2. 1. $847,000

3. 1. $17.90

4. 1. 0.985

5. 1. y = 66.44 + .58x

   1. 90.22

6. 1. r = 1.96

   2. y = 0.672 + 6.158x

   3. About 12 mowers

7. 1. MAD5 = 5

      MAD6 = 5.9

      MAD7 = 4.73

      MAD8 = 3.911

      MAD9 = 4.238

      etc.

   2. TS5 = 1.40

      TS6 = 0.17

      TS7 = 0.63

      TS8 = 0.26

      TS9 = 1.42

      etc.

   1. Initial MAD = 4.727. The tracking signal for month 15 is 4.088, so at that point, the forecast would be suspect.

   2. errors = 1, errors2 = 345. Control limits: 0 12.38 (in limits). Plot reveals cycles in errors.

CHAPTER 4: Supplement: Reliability

1. 1. .81

   2. .9801

   3. .9783

2. .9033

3. .9726

4. .93

5. 1. .9315

   2. .9953

   3. .994

6. 1. .7876

   2. 0.8664, Component 4

   3. 0.8681, Component 4

7. 1. Plan 2 (.9934)

8. 1. .0020

   2. .0023

9. .996

10. .995

11. .006

12. 1. (1) .2725

       (2) .2019

       (3) .1353

    2. (1) .6671

       (2) .3935

       (3) .1813

    3. (1) 21 months

       (2) 57 months

       (3) 90 months

       (4) 138 months

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13. 1. .6321

    2. Three months or 90 days

14. 1. .3012

    2. .1813

    3. .5175

15. 1. .2231

    2. .8647

    3. .0878

    4. .0302

16. 1. .2266

    2. .4400

    3. .3830

17. 1. (1) .9772

       (2) .5000

       (3) .0013

    2. Approximately zero

    3. (1) 4.97 years

       (2) 5.18 years

18. 1. 4.97 years

    2. 5.18 years

19. 1. .93

    2. .98

CHAPTER 5: Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services

1. 1. Utilization = 70%

      Efficiency = 87.5%

   2. Utilization = 67%

      Efficiency = 80%

2. 20 jobs per week

3. 1. 46,000 units

   2. (1) $3,000

      (2) $8,200

   3. 126,000 units

   4. 25,556 units

4. 1. A: 8,000 units

      B: 7,500 units

   2. 10,000 units

   3. A: $20,000

      B: $18,000

5. 1. 39,683 units

   2. $1.71 (rounded up)

6. 1. A: $82

      B: $92

      C: $100

   1. A: 0 to less than 178

      B: Never

      C: 178 +

   2. 1/3 day, 2/3 evening

7. Vendor best for Q < 63,333. For larger quantities, produce in-house at $4 per unit.

8. 1. Vendor B is best for 10,000 and 20,000.

9. 3 cells

1. 1. Buy 2 Bs

   2. Buy 2 Bs

2. 1. one: Q = 80. two: Q = 152

   1. 11 units/hr

1. 50 units/hr

2. 1. 15 units/hr

   2. Operation #2, increase by 5 units for a system capacity of 20 units.

3. 8 years

CHAPTER 5: Supplement: Decision Theory

1. 1. Expand (80)

   2. Do nothing (50)

   3. Indifferent between do nothing and subcontract (55)

   4. Subcontract (10)

2. 1. Expand (62)

   2. $9 (000)

3. 1. Do nothing: P(high) < .50

      Subcontract: .50 < P(high) <.67

      Expand: P(high) >.67

4. 1. 

   2. $164,000

   3. Large 0 to .46. Small .46 to 1.00

5. Subcontract: $1.23

   Expand: $1.57

   Build: $1.35

6. 1. Relocate

   2. Renew

   3. Relocate

   4. Relocate

7. 1. Renew

   2. EVPI = $575,000

   3. Yes

8. 1. Build large: $53.6 million

   2. Build small: $42 million

   3. $12.4

   4. Build small for P(high) < .721

      Build large for P(high) > .721

9. Buy two ($113.5)