Prince of Wales Charles - Climate Change

HRH The Prince of Wales
Tony Juniper
Emily Shuckburgh

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CLIMATE CHANGE

with illustrations by
Ruth Palmer

The climate has a profound influence on all our daily lives and has shaped the history of life on Earth. Climatic conditions are determined by the atmosphere, oceans, land, ice and the life on our planet acting in concert under the power of the Sun.

Earths atmosphere forms a layer as thin in relative terms as the skin of an apple. It is mostly made up of nitrogen and oxygen, but also contains smaller amounts of other gases. These include those commonly referred to as greenhouse gases which trap the Suns heat and keep the Earth warm enough for life to flourish.

Satellites orbiting the Earth and monitoring stations on the ground show that concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are increasing, in particular carbon dioxide. This is leading to rising temperatures and disruption to the climate.

We are already seeing dramatic impacts: altered weather patterns, reduced snow and ice and a rise in sea levels.

These impacts threaten food and water supply, peoples health, security and economic activity, as well as wildlife and the natural world. If we act now to tackle climate change, we will support progress towards a more prosperous, secure and sustainable future. But if we dont act immediately, this could all be at risk.

Records from thousands of weather stations across the world, and ocean data from ships and buoys, show the temperature measured at the Earths surface has increased substantially over the past century, and especially over the last fifty years. Certain regions, in particular the Arctic, have seen much more warming than others.

Some years have always been warmer or cooler than others. This is because natural factors can cause year-to-year and decade-to-decade temperature variations. These natural factors include changes to the strength of the Sun, the impact of volcanic eruptions and climate cycles such as the El Nio phenomenon.

Nevertheless, the three decades from 1980 to 2010 all showed record warmth compared with previous decades. Since the turn of the millennium, the worlds temperature has typically been more than 0.75C warmer than it was 150 years ago in Victorian times and in 2015 it reached 1C warmer.

Other observations from around the world, including warming of the oceans from the surface to depths and reductions in ice and snow cover, provide further evidence that planetary-scale warming is taking place.

The warming has dramatically reduced Arctic sea ice. In 2016 and several other recent years, at the end of the summer melt season, the sea ice covered an area less than two-thirds of that at the end of the twentieth century. Just to put that in perspective, thats a drop equivalent to the area of the United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Spain, Germany and Italy put together. The melting of this floating ice does not raise sea levels, but change on this scale can alter weather across Europe, Asia and North America.

In addition, as the world has warmed, the water in the oceans has expanded, many mountain glaciers have retreated and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica have shrunk. These changes have raised sea levels, as long-term measurements of tide gauges and recent satellite data show.

The effects of sea-level rise are felt most acutely when storm surges occur. Worryingly, many of the worlds existing and developing megacities, including Shanghai, Jakarta and Mumbai, are located in vulnerable coastal regions. The flooding which hit New York City in 2012 during Hurricane Sandy showed the damage that storm surges can cause to critical infrastructure.

For now, the Thames Barrier protects London from flooding, but if significant sea-level rise occurs, expensive reinforcement will eventually be required. For many other cities, such defences would be either impossible or simply too costly to build.

Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, floods and storms can cause major damage and disruption, with large financial costs and sometimes loss of life.

In 2016, India was reported to have recorded its then highest ever temperature (51C) during a deadly heatwave. A severe summer heatwave in Europe in 2003 led to tens of thousands of premature deaths, especially among elderly people. In Australia, recent intense bushfires have destroyed thousands of properties and led to scores of deaths. Parts of the UK have repeatedly seen devastating flooding in the years since the start of the twenty-first century and in Pakistan floods affected 20 million people in 2010.

Around the world extreme weather conditions are leading to temperature and rainfall records being broken, with ever more serious consequences, as what were once extreme conditions are starting to become normal.

Freak weather has always occurred, but studies indicate climate change has increased the risk of certain extreme conditions, for example a major European heatwave. Analysis indicates that the kind of heavy downpours responsible for some of the terrible recent flooding in the UK have become more likely because of climate change. In part this is because a warmer atmosphere holds more water, giving rise in places to more intense rains and increased flood risk.

Threats to food and water supply, human health and national security, and the risk of humanitarian crises, are all potentially increased by climate change.

Crop yields depend on a range of factors including temperature, rainfall and sunshine. In the extreme, droughts and floods can push up prices to the point where the poorest go hungry. Some climate changes may favour certain crops, but overall it is expected that continued climate disruption will lead to less secure food supplies.

There is concern that the supply of water to some populations may become depleted as climate change advances. For example, across South Asia and China, large rivers provide fresh water for drinking and irrigation and the water flow depends on regional rain and snowfall, with meltwater from Himalayan glaciers providing additional supply. Each of these sources may be affected by climate change.

Human health can be affected by extreme weather as well as by factors associated with climate change such as air pollution and the spread of disease.

When climate change threatens basic human needs and welfare this can exacerbate existing tensions and may increase the risks of regional conflict and migration. Moreover, heatwaves, droughts and floods can complicate the relief effort for refugees displaced because of conflict.