Una Bergmane - Politics of Uncertainty: The United States, the Baltic Question, and the Collapse of the Soviet Union

James J. Sheehan, series advisor

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POLITICS OF UNCERTAINTY

The United States, the Baltic Question, and the Collapse of the Soviet Union

Una Bergmane

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Oxford University Press 2023

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above.

Portions of Chapter 4 are adapted from Una Bergmane, Is This the End of Perestroika? International Reactions to the Soviet Use of Force in the Baltic Republics in January 1991, Journal of Cold War Studies (2020) 22 (2): 2657. Used with permission of MIT Press.

You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Bergmane, Una, author.

Title: Politics of uncertainty : the United States, the Baltic question,

and the collapse of the Soviet Union / Una Bergmane.

Description: New York, NY : Oxford University Press, [2023] |

Series: Oxford studies in international history |

Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2022053641 (print) | LCCN 2022053642 (ebook) |

ISBN 9780197578346 (hardback) | ISBN 9780197578360 (epub) |

ISBN 9780197578377 (oso)

Subjects: LCSH: Baltic StatesForeign relations. | United States

Foreign relationsBaltic States. | Baltic StatesForeign relations

United States. | Soviet UnionForeign relationsUnited States. |

United StatesForeign relationsSoviet Union. | Baltic StatesHistory19401991.

Classification: LCC DK502.715 .B47 2023 (print) | LCC DK502.715 (ebook) |

DDC 947.9084dc23/eng/20221109

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022053641

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022053642

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780197578346.001.0001

To Ukrainian scholars and students

who became soldiers,

who became refugees,

who continued to work and study

despite the war that Russia waged against their country.

First and foremost, I want to thank Mario del Pero for his long-term mentorship, his interest in my work, and his support for my academic career.

This book originates from a doctoral dissertation that I wrote at Sciences Po under the supervision of Maurice Vasse and Anne de Tinguy. Im thankful to both of them for agreeing to supervise my thesis and for their feedback on my work. Im also grateful to the Fondation nationale des sciences politiques for funding the first three years of my doctoral studies.

Over the past ten years I benefited from the support of the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies. Aina Birnitis Dissertation-Completion Fellowship, Mudte I. Zlte Saltups Fellowship, and AABS Emerging Scholars Grant have allowed me to conduct crucial research in the American archives and finish my dissertation. In 2020, Oxford University Press received the AABS Book Publication Subvention for the publication of this book. Beyond financial assistance, AABS has also provided a framework for exchanges with the vibrant community of Baltic Studies scholars worldwide. Im especially grateful to Andres Kasekamp for being part of my thesis committee and for his ongoing interest in my work.

One of the highlights of my doctoral studies was the year I spent at Yale University as a Fox International Fellow. Im very thankful to late Joseph Carrre Fox, whose commitment to international knowledge exchange made this experience possible. Julia Adams, who served as director of the Fox International Fellowship, continued to support my academic endeavors long after I left New Haven. I appreciate her kindness more than I have had a chance to express.

After defending my PhD, I left Paris and spent a wonderful year as a postdoc at the Mario Einaudi Center at Cornell University. My biggest thanks go to Matthew Evangelista not only for his comments on my work but also for his unwavering support for my career.

Large parts of this book were written during my two-year teaching fellowship at LSE. I would like to thank Matthew Jones and Piers Ludlow for creating a work setting that was truly enjoyable and productive. Kristina Spohr was on a sabbatical year during my time at LSE, but as I was teaching her courses, those two years felt like a long intellectual exchange with her. As one of the very few scholars who has worked on the Baltic question at the end of the Cold War before me and has served as a member of my thesis committee, she has a special place in my academic trajectory. I also had a chance to teach the Soviet history course of Vladislav Zubok and to discuss our perspectives on Soviet history during long lunch and coffee breaks and Im thankful for these exchanges. A special thanks go to my fellow LSE teaching fellows Pete Millwood, Tom Ellis, and Anna Cant, as their support and friendship were crucial in fighting the workload and as well as the angst of the first London lockdown. Pete and Tom, Anita Prazmowska, Dina Gusejnova, Molly Avery, Marral Shamshiri-Fard, and Tom Wilkinson kindly read one of the last drafts of this book and/or my book proposal, and I am forever grateful for their insightful comments. A heartfelt thanks go to Alexandra Medzibrodszky not only for being a fantastic teaching assistant but also for becoming such a good friend.