Nathan Andrew J. - Chinas Search for Security

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CHINAS SEARCH FOR SECURITY

Columbia University Press

Publishers Since 1893

New York Chichester, West Sussex

cup.columbia.edu

Copyright 2012 Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell

All rights reserved

E-ISBN 978-0-231-51164-3

The authors and Columbia University Press wish to thank Robert S. Ross for permission to use material that originally appeared in this books first edition, The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Nathan, Andrew J. (Andrew James)

Chinas search for security / Andrew J. Nathan and Andrew Scobell.

p. cm

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-231-140508 (cloth : alk. paper)ISBN 978-0-231-51164-3 (ebook)

1. ChinaForeign relations19492. National security-China. I. Scobell, Andrew. II. Title.

JZ1734.N37 2012

355'.033551dc23

2012009156

Cover images: Alamy Cover design: Lisa Hamm

Book Design: Lisa Hamm

Frontispiece: China and Its Neighbors

A Columbia University Press E-book.

CUP would be pleased to hear about your reading experience with this e-book at .

References to Internet Web sites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the authors nor Columbia University Press are responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was prepared.

Dedicated to the memory of our fathers

Paul S Nathan, 19132009

Charles L. Scobell, 19262009

CONTENTS

ANZUS	Australia, New Zealand, United States Alliance
ARATS	Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait
ASEAN	Association of Southeast Asian Nations
CCP	Chinese Communist Party
CENTCOM	U.S. Central Command
CIA	U.S. Central Intelligence Agency
CLSG	central leading small group
CMC	Central Military Commission
DPP	Democratic Progressive Party
DPRK	Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea
EEZ	Exclusive Economic Zones
FBI	U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation
GDP	gross domestic product
IAEA	International Atomic Energy Agency
ICBM	intercontinental ballistic missile
IMF	International Monetary Fund
KEDO	Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization
KMT	Kuomintang, Nationalist Party
MOOTW	Military Operations Other Than War
MR	military region
MSG	Military Strategic Guidelines
NATO	North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NCO	noncommissioned officer
NGO	nongovernmental organization
NPC	National Peoples Congress
NPT	Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
NSC	U.S. National Security Council
ODA	official development assistance
PACOM	U.S. Pacific Command
PAP	Peoples Armed Police
PBSC	Politburo Standing Committee
PLA	Peoples Liberation Army
PRC	Peoples Republic of China
ROC	Republic of China
ROK	Republic of Korea
SASTIND	State Administration for Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense
SCO	Shanghai Cooperation Organization
SDF	Self-Defense Forces
SEATO	Southeast Asia Treaty Organization
SEF	Straits Exchange Foundation
TAR	Tibet Autonomous Region
TRA	Taiwan Relations Act
UDHR	Universal Declaration of Human Rights
UN	United Nations
UNCLOS	United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
WHO	World Health Organization
WTO	World Trade Organization

Chinas Search for Security grew out of a previous work called The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress, which was published in 1997. We set out to produce a revised and updated edition of that book, but Chinas position in the world has changed so much that we ended up with what is almost entirely a new book. The analytical approach remains the same: we look at Chinas security problems from the Chinese point of view in order to analyze how Chinese policymakers have tried to solve them. The basic conclusion also stands: China is too bogged down in the security challenges within and around its borders to threaten the West unless the West weakens itself to the point of creating a power vacuum.

In other respects, however, Chinas position in the world has changed. In 1997, it was a vulnerable country, fielding a foreign policy that was mainly defensive and aimed at preventing domestic instability, avoiding the loss of historically held territories such as Taiwan and Tibet, and reconstructing strained relations with potentially threatening powerful neighbors such as Japan, Russia, and India. It had no major interests or significant means of influence in parts of the world beyond its immediate periphery. It was not an actor of consequence in Europe, North or South America, Africa, or the Middle East.

That century has arrived, and China has fulfilled its intention. Great power is a vague term, but China deserves it by any measure: the extent and strategic location of its territory, the size and dynamism of its population, the value and growth rate of its economy, its massive share of global trade, the size and sophistication of its military, the reach of its diplomatic interests, and its level of cultural influence. It has become one of a small number of countries that have significant national interests in every part of the worldoften driven by the search for resourcesand whose voice must be heard in the solution of every global problem. It is one of the few countries that command the attention, whether willingly or grudgingly, of every other country and every international organization. It is the only country widely seen as a possible threat to U.S. predominance.

It is easy to forget that Chinas rise was what the West wanted. Richard Nixon laid the groundwork for the policy of engagement by arguing in 1967, [W]e simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations, there to nurture its fantasies, cherish its hates and threaten its neighbors. There is no place on this small planet for a billion of its potentially most able people to live in angry isolation. He launched the engagement policy with his historic visit to China in 1972. Every American president since then has stated that the prosperity and stability of China are in the interest of the United States.

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