Julian Perry Robinson - Chemical Warfare Arms Control: A Framework for Considering Policy Alternatives

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ROUTLEDGE LIBRARY EDITIONS: COLD WAR SECURITY STUDIES

Volume 11

CHEMICAL WARFARE ARMS CONTROL

First published in 1985 by Taylor & Francis Ltd

This edition first published in 2021

by Routledge

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

and by Routledge

52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

1985 SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-0-367-56630-2 (Set)

ISBN: 978-1-00-312438-2 (Set) (ebk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-62749-2 (Volume 11) (hbk)

ISBN: 978-1-00-311064-4 (Volume 11) (ebk)

Publishers Note

The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original copies may be apparent.

Disclaimer

The publisher has made every effort to trace copyright holders and would welcome correspondence from those they have been unable to trace.

Chemical Warfare Arms Control:
A framework for considering policy alternatives
by
Julian Perry Robinson

sipri
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

UK Taylor & Francis Ltd, 4 John Street, London WC1N 2ET

USA Taylor & Francis Inc., 242 Cherry Street, Philadelphia, PA 19106-1906

Copyright SIPRI 1985

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner and publishers.

ISBN 0-85066-308-3

ISSN 0267-2537

ABSTRACT

Perry Robinson, Julian, Chemical Warfare Arms Control: A framework for considering policy alternatives. Taylor & Francis, London and Philadelphia, 1985, 116 pp. (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). ISBN 0-85066-308-3.

This monograph focuses on the Geneva disarmament enterprise. What Is at tempted here Is an overview:away of thinking about chemical weapons from the stand point of national policy-making In a manner that Integrates both defence and arms-control aspects. No particular recommendations for policy are made, although the monograph Is Illustrated with examples of the sorts of conclusions that might be drawn from the analytical framework. Express at tention Is paid to some highly relevant considerations which the customs of diplomacy tend to push beneath the surface of intergovernmental discourse in Geneva--the Influence of domestic Interests and the need for a symbiotic relationship between national Intel llgence machinery and International verification machinery. The principal focus is on the core issue of verification.

Printed in Great Britain by Taylor & Francis (Printers) Ltd, Basingstoke, Hants.

Contents

Chapter 2. The scope of the.projected Chemical Weapons Convention

Formulating a new norm of international behaviour

Why a norm only of non-use is insufficient

Need for a norm of nonpossession

Partial measures

Adequacy of a nonpossession norm: intentions, capability and warning time

A fuller framework of analysis

Chapter 3. National security and the relative value of policy alternatives

Categories of value

The concept of national security

Determinants of national security

The central role of threat analysis

Chapter 4. The threats posed by chemical weapons

Military origins

Technical origins

Institutional origins

Synthesis

Intelligence and the current threat

Assimilation and the future threat

Supply-side threats

Ranking levels of threat

Chapter 5. Assurance and verification

Policy options against chemical threats

Provisions for assuring adequate warning

Information provisions

Capability-elimination provisions

Retained-countermeasure provisions

Fallback provisions

Relative importance of the provisions

Cheating

Projecting assurance

The range of assurance provisions needed

Chapter 6. Rules and procedures of the projected treaty regime

Function into form

The normative rules and associated definitions

The definition of chemical weapons

Subsidiary definitions: correlating levels of risk and control

Toxicity criteria and their limitations

The procedural rules and prescribed procedures

Chapter 7. The analytical framework completed

The major options for adjusting the rules and procedures

Completing the analytical framework

Applying the analytical framework

Some countervailing principles

Matters for further inquiry

1. Chapter 2. The scope of the projected Chemical Weapons Convention
   1. Formulating a new norm of international behaviour
      1. Why a norm only of non-use is insufficient
      2. Need for a norm of nonpossession
   2. Partial measures
   3. Adequacy of a nonpossession norm: intentions, capability and warning time
   4. A fuller framework of analysis
2. Chapter 3. National security and the relative value of policy alternatives
   1. Categories of value
   2. The concept of national security
   3. Determinants of national security
   4. The central role of threat analysis
3. Chapter 4. The threats posed by chemical weapons
   1. Military origins
   2. Technical origins
   3. Institutional origins
   4. Synthesis
      1. Intelligence and the current threat
      2. Assimilation and the future threat
      3. Supply-side threats
   5. Ranking levels of threat
4. Chapter 5. Assurance and verification
   1. Policy options against chemical threats
   2. Provisions for assuring adequate warning
      1. Information provisions
      2. Capability-elimination provisions
      3. Retained-countermeasure provisions
      4. Fallback provisions
      5. Relative importance of the provisions
   3. Cheating
   4. Projecting assurance
   5. The range of assurance provisions needed
5. Chapter 6. Rules and procedures of the projected treaty regime
   1. Function into form
   2. The normative rules and associated definitions
      1. The definition of chemical weapons
   3. Subsidiary definitions: correlating levels of risk and control
      1. Toxicity criteria and their limitations

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