Johnson - Simply Complexity: A Clear Guide to Complexity Theory

Simply Complexity

Neil Johnson is the head of a new inter-disciplinary research group in Complexity at the University of Miami in Florida. He was previously Professor of Physics and co-director of research collaboration into Complexity at Oxford University. He does research on a wide variety of real-world Complex Systems, and is an author of Financial Market Complexity (Oxford University Press, 2003). He enjoys the complex things in life, like overcrowded bars and the fastest route home from work.

A Clear Guide to Complexity Theory

Neil F. Johnson

A Oneworld Book

First published in hardcover by oneworld Publications
as Twos Company, Three is Complexity 2007
First published in trade paperback as Simply Complexity 2009
Reprinted 2009, 2010
This ebook edition published by Oneworld Publications 2011

Copyright Neil Johnson 2007

All rights reserved
Copyright under Berne Convention
A CIP record for this title is available
from the British Library

ISBN 9781780740492

Typeset by Jayvee, Trivandrum, India
Cover design by D. R. ink

Oneworld Publications
185 Banbury Road
Oxford OX2 7AR
England

Learn more about Oneworld. Join our mailing list to find out about our latest titles and special offers at:

www.oneworld-publications.com

It is 2050, and you are watching Who Wants to be a Billionaire? The contestant is one question away from the jackpot. Up comes his question: What is the name of the theory that scientists started developing at the beginning of the twenty-first century, and which helped the world overcome traffic congestion, financial market crashes, terrorist attacks, pandemic viruses, and cancer? The contestant cannot believe his luck. What an easy question! But he is so nervous that his mind temporarily goes blank. He starts to consider option A: They are all still unsolved problems but then quickly realizes that this is a dumb answer. Instead, he uses his last lifeline to ask the audience. The audience responds unanimously and instantaneously with option B: The Theory of Complexity. Without hesitation, he goes with option B. The host hands him the cheque, and the world has yet another billionaire.

Pure fantasy? Maybe not.

In this book, we will go on a journey to the heart of Complexity, an emerging science which looks set to trigger the next great wave of advances in everything from medicine and biology through to economics and sociology. Complexity Science also comes with the prospect of solving a wide range of important problems which face us as individuals and as a Society. Consequently, it is set to permeate through every aspect of our lives.

There is, however, one problem. We dont yet have a fully-fledged theory of Complexity. Instead, I will use this book to assemble all the likely ingredients of such a theory within a common framework, and then analyze a wide range of real-world applications within this same common framework. It will then require someone from the future perhaps one of the younger readers of this book to finally put all these pieces into place.

Complexity Science is a double-edged sword in the best possible sense. It is truly big science in that it embodies some of the hardest, most fundamental and most challenging open problems in academia. Yet it also manages to encapsulate the major practical issues which face us every day from our personal lives and health, through to global security. Making a pizza is complicated, but not complex. The same holds for filling out your tax return, or mending a bicycle puncture. Just follow the instructions step by step, and you will eventually be able to go from start to finish without too much trouble. But imagine trying to do all three at the same time. Worse still, suppose that the sequence of steps that you follow in one task actually depends on how things are progressing with the other two. Difficult? Well, you now have an indication of what Complexity is all about. With that in mind, now substitute those three interconnected tasks for a situation in which three interconnected people each try to follow their own instincts and strategies while reacting to the actions of the others. This then gives an idea of just how Complexity might arise all around us in our daily lives.

While I was writing this book, I had the following wish-list in my head concerning its goals:

1. To provide a book which a wide cross-section of people would want to read and would enjoy reading regardless of age, background or level of scientific knowledge.

2. To introduce readers to the exciting range of real-world scenarios in which Complexity Science can prove its worth.

3. To provide the book on Complexity that I never had but always needed. In other words, to provide an easily readable yet thorough guide to this important scientific revolution.

4. To provide a book that my kids could read or rather, a book that they would actually choose to read all by themselves. This is a very important goal, since Complexity will likely become the science of interest for future generations.

5. To provide a book which is just as readable on a plane or bus as in a library. As such, it should also make sense when read in short chunks.

6. To provide a book which provides professional scientists, economists, and policy-makers with a new perspective on open problems in their field, and to help stimulate new Complexity-based interdisciplinary research projects.

However, as I finish the book and offer it up to potential readers, I realize that the above wish-list can essentially be reduced to just one item: I would wish that you enjoy reading this book, and that it might provide you with fresh thoughts and insights for dealing with the complex world in which we live, and which our children will inherit.

There are some practicalities concerning the books content and layout which I would like to explain. The language, examples and analogies are kept simple since the focus of the book is to explain what Complexity Science is all about, and why it is so important for us all. I therefore avoid delving into too much detail in the main text. Instead, the Appendix describes how to access the technical research papers upon which the discussions in the book are based, and gives a list of Internet websites containing additional information about Complexity research around the world. Having said this, I wont pull any punches in the sense that I tackle all the topics which I believe to be relevant. delves into its real-world applications. Some of the territory is only just beginning to be explored, with very few answers available for the questions being posed. From the perspective of other scientific revolutions throughout history this might seem to be par for the course. However we are not talking about history here instead, we are looking at work which is emerging at the forefront of a new discipline. For this reason we will be highlighting where such research is heading, rather than where it has been.

But why should you believe what I write about Complexity? This is a crucially important question given that Complexity Science is still being developed and its potential applications explored. Unfortunately many accounts of Complexity in the popular press are second-hand, i.e. they are typically written by people who have done little, if any, research on Complexity themselves and are instead reporting on their interpretation of other peoples work. Given the relatively immature nature of the field, I believe that such indirect interpretations are potentially dangerous. For this reason, I will base the books content around my own research groups experience in Complexity. This has various advantages: (i) it reflects my own understanding of the Complexity field; (ii) it represents what I believe to be the most relevant and important topics; (iii) it will hopefully give the reader a sense of what it is like to be at the pit-face in such a challenging area of research; and (iv) it ensures that any reader can challenge me directly on any claims that I make, and can demand an informed answer. To facilitate this process of public scrutiny, a complete list of the relevant scientific research reports is presented in the latter part of the Appendix. I also encourage any readers who wish to email me with questions, to do so at