Ron Insana - How to Make a Fortune from the Biggest Bailout in U.S. History: A Guide to the 7 Greatest Bargains from Main Street to Wall Street

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Table of Contents

To Melinda
and
Emily, Thomas, and Anna,
my lifes inspiration

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

IN EVERY ENDEAVOR THAT IS CALLED A BOOK, MORE PEOPLE are involved than anyone realizes. Even some of the people who have helped to shape the manuscript will remain forever unaware of their influence on the thinking, the writing, or the subconscious mind that absorbs, analyzes, or presents information, judgments, or flights of fancy to the authors audience.

Hence, it is impossible for any writer to acknowledge the contributions of all who make a piece of writing, fiction or nonfiction, come to life.

But that is hardly an excuse for errors of omission in recognizing all who have contributed to my growth and development as an author, a journalist, a financial professional, and a person.

I must first give great thanks to my wife, Melinda, who has borne an unusual burden in recent years as I sought to remake my life in a variety of ways, from 2006 through 2009. Her constant encouragement and support through a couple of career changes and some moments of self-doubt kept me stable, grounded, and secure enough to confidently tackle new endeavors in my life, without which I would be poorer in experience, both professionally and personally.

To my children, Emily, Thomas, and Anna, whose patience has been both an amazing sign of grace at early ages and a great help as I worked to complete the manuscript. Though disappointed by my frequent refusals to break away from the computer to get down on the floor and play, over the last several months they also encouraged me to finish quickly so that life could return to normal. Or, as my son just said to me as I was writing my acknowledgments, now we can finally go back to the batting cages.

To my brother, Art, who always provides counsel, guidance, and excellent editorial advice. His assistance in shaping the book has been invaluable, as his early interest in writing was inspirational.

To my mom, Adelia; my sister, Lisa; and my wider family of in-laws, cousins, and friends, thank you for letting me skip out on a few gatherings so that I could put pen to paper.

To my longtime mentors, Doug Crichton and Arthur Cashin. They are both intimately familiar with how much they have influenced my life, in both the business world and in our real world. I consider it an honor to call them friends.

To my other longtime friend, mentor, and agent, Richard Leibner, who always keeps one eye out for me and one eye on me. His career and life counseling has been spot-on for more than twenty-two years. He has led me to other great people, such as George Hiltzik, who handles my radio work; and, more recently, Paul Fedorko, my literary agent, who found the perfect publisher, in quick time, to take on this project. I am, as always, in Richard, George, and Pauls debt. (And even though youre agents, please take that as a compliment, not as a percentage!)

To Harry Rhoads, Shayna Stillman, and the supreme professionals at the Washington Speakers Bureau. They provide constant encouragement to me, personally, and get me to stretch professionally, so that I am always finding new avenues of inquiry to explore. Harry Rhoads also provides the type of inspiration in life that is rare among professional colleagues.

To my editor, Megan Newman, whose patience, deft touch, and gentle manner allowed me to proceed with this book in a manner I felt most appropriate, as did her assistant, Miriam Rich. Megans guidance greatly enhanced the arc of the advice contained in the book and its accessibility for a group of potential readers who have been burned by much of the recent investment advice they have received.

Many thanks also to Bill Shinker, who founded Gotham Books and enthusiastically agreed to publish the manuscript without a moments hesitation. It has been my pleasure to work with Bill on my latest effort, and I hope it leads to a broader and deeper relationship over time.

Ron Insana
July 21, 2009

INTRODUCTION

I WANT TO ASK YOU A FEW SIMPLE QUESTIONS:

Do you believe the economy will be materially worse or materially better, in the next five, ten, or fifteen years, than it is today?

If you said Materially worseand remember that this is about as bad as it getsI would move to Montana, buy heavy arms, and stock a multiyear supply of canned goods, because well be back living in caves before long!

But if you said Better, which is the correct answer, then, my next question is, What are you prepared to do about it?

Are you going to sit back and wait to see proof that the worst part of this recession is over before taking the urgent and necessary steps to improve your financial future?

Or, like the savvy professionals I know, are you willing to use any spare cash you have, or redirect your current investment dollars, to take advantage of some of the greatest investment opportunities youll see in this lifetime?

Despite the doom and gloom that you hear about day after day on television, radio, or the Internet, or read about in the newspapers, the world is NOT coming to an end. Its true that this is a difficult economy, probably the worst recession weve seen since the 1930s.

However, all recessions come to an end. And at the bottom of those recessions, where I believe we are now, are the single best values you can find in every asset class affected by the downturn.

Whether the roof caved in on real estate, or stocks came crashing down, or if hard commodities suddenly went soft, or corporate debt turned to junk, it really doesnt matter. All of that has already happened! That just means that the next big move, over the next five, ten, or fifteen years is UP, not down. Not the next five, ten, or fifteen minutes, but the next five, ten, or fifteen years.

Even the Great Depression eventually came to an end. And despite the Depression, AND World War II, the world didnt end.

Let me digress a bit and tell you a little story about the end of the world and making a market bet that it is just around the corner.

My longtime friend and colleague Art Cashin, a forty-five-year Wall Street veteran who has spent most of his career on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, has seen many cycles come and gogood, bad, and ugly. Some so ugly that it seemed that Armageddon was truly at hand.

When training for his job as a broker, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Arts class of trainees was asked what an investor should do if the United States and Russia moved to the brink of a nuclear war and missiles were about to be fired from just ninety miles off the coast of Florida.

To a man, the class said, Sell! They immediately stood corrected. The correct answer, they were told, was, Buy! They should buy because, even if they were right, and missiles did fly, there would be no one left on the floor to fill their orders and they would lose no money.

If, however, they were wrong and the heightened tensions passed without a rocket being fired (as was the case in 1962), then investors could have bought stocks at panic-induced prices that had nearly reduced them to nuclear waste! And thus the move from nuclear winter on Wall Street to spring again would have been a very profitable one for those who bet against the end of the world.

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