Asian Development Bank - Trust Funds and Fiscal Risks in the North Pacific: Analysis of Trust Fund Rules and Sustainability in the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia

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PACIFIC STUDIES SERIES

TRUST FUNDS AND FISCAL RISKS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC

ANALYSIS OF TRUST FUND RULES AND SUSTAINABILITY IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA

Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)

2015 Asian Development Bank
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Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444
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Some rights reserved. Published in 2015.
Printed in the Philippines.

ISBN 978-92-9257-157-3 (Print), 978-92-9257-158-0 (e-ISBN)
Publication Stock No. RPT146714-2

Cataloging-In-Publication Data

Asian Development Bank.

Trust funds and fiscal risks in the North Pacific
Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2015.

1. Trust funds 2. Pacific I. Asian Development Bank.

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.

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Author. Year of publication. Title of the material. Asian Development Bank [and/or Publisher]. https://openaccess.adb.org. Available under a CC BY 3.0 IGO license.

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Originally published by the Asian Development Bank in English under the title [title] [Year of publication] Asian Development Bank. All rights reserved. The quality of this translation and its coherence with the original text is the sole responsibility of the [translator]. The English original of this work is the only official version.

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This paper has been produced by Michael Wulfsohn, Consultant, Asian Development Bank. This paper should only be reproduced in its entirety. ADB has incorporated in this paper as much information as possible about relevant aspects and contexts of the Compact Trust Funds of the Republic of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia. However, there is always the possibility that other relevant pieces of information, to which ADB does not have access, exist. If this is the case, the modeling results and conclusions may need to be reviewed in light of such information.

Contents

Tables and Figures
Foreword
Abbreviations
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
I.	Introduction
Background
Characteristics of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesias Compact Grants and Trust Funds
Investment Returns Offer Tougher Love than Grants
II.	Compact Trust Fund Account Structure and Drawdown Rules
Details of Account Structure and Drawdown Rules
III.	Modeling Fund Investment Returns
Investment Return Model Construction
Results of Modeling the Portfolios in Isolation
Construction of the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesias Compact Trust Fund Models
Limitations of the Models
IV.	Modeling Results for the Marshall Islands
Progression of the Marshall Islands Compact Trust Fund Size
Typical Patterns of Allowable Drawdowns
DrawdownsSummary Statistics
Alternative Drawdown Rules
Choosing a Fixed Drawdown Percentage
Conclusions
Potential Fiscal Cliff for the Marshall Islands
V.	Modeling Results for the Federated States of Micronesia
Progression of the Federated States of Micronesias Compact Trust Fund Size
Typical Patterns of Allowable Drawdowns
DrawdownsSummary Statistics
Alternative Drawdown Rules
Choosing a Fixed Drawdown Percentage
Conclusions
Potential Fiscal Cliff for the Federated States of Micronesia

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