James E. Campbell - The American campaign: U.S. presidential campaigns and the national vote

Cover

Page i

Page iii

NUMBER. SIX:
Joseph V. Hughes, Jr., and Holly O. Hughes
Series in the Presidency and Leadership Studies

James P. Pfiffner, General Editor

Series Editorial Board

Peri Arnold

H. W. Brands

George C. Edwards III

Fred I. Greenstein

Erwin C. Hargrove

Charles O. Jones

Martha Joynt Kamar

Roger Porter

Stephen J. Wayne

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The
* American
Campaign

U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the National Vote

JAMES E. CAMPBELL

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Copyright 2000 by James E. Campbell
Manufactured in the United States of America
All rights reserved
First edition
The paper used in this book meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, Z39.48-1984. Binding materials have been chosen for durability.
Texas A&M University Press expresses its appreciation for support in publishing works on the presidency and leadership to
THE CENTER FOR PRESIDENTIAL STUDIES
George Bush School of Government and Public Service Texas A&M University
For a complete list of books in print in this series, see the back of the book.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Campbell, James E., 1952-
The American campaign: U.S. presidential campaigns and
the national vote / James E. Campbell.
p. cm. (Joseph V. Hughes, Jr., and Holly O. Hughes
series in the presidency and leadership studies; no. 6)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-89096-939-6 (cloth) ISBN 0-89096-940-X (paper)
1. Presidents United States Election. 2. Electioneering United States. 3. Voting United States. 4. Election fore casting United States. 5. Political science United States.
I. Title. II. Series.
JK528.C36 2000
324.70973 dc21	99-052762
CIP

Page vii

To my mom,
Mary Campbell,
to my brothers,
John, Bob, Dick, and Stephen,
and
to the memory of my dad,
Wallace J. Campbell, Jr.

Page ix

List of Figures, x

List of Tables, xi

Preface, xv

Introduction, xix

1. The Impact of Presidential Campaigns, 3

2. The Theory of the Predictable Campaign, 28

3. Studying the Effects of Campaigns, 51

4. The Stable Context of the Campaign, 79

5. Presidents in the Campaign, 101

6. The Economic Context of the Campaign, 126

7. The Normal Course of the Campaign, 140

8. Electoral Competition and Unsystematic Campaign Effects, 163

9. How Campaigns Matter, 186

Epilogue: The 2000 Campaign, 201

Appendix A: Partisanship in the American Electorate, 207

Appendix B: Time of the Vote Decision and Partisan Loyalty, 219

Notes, 235

References, 285

Index, 297

Page x

1.1. The Minimal Effects Theory of Political Campaigns, 11

1.2. The Mean Absolute Error of Trial-Heat Forecasts, 194896, 17

1.3. Trial-Heat Poll Support in Early September, 194896, 18

2.1. The Theory of the Predictable Campaign, 30

2.2. The Development of the Typical Campaign, 49

5.1. Presidential Approval in July and the Incumbent's Two-Party Presidential Vote, 194896, 109

6.1. The Election-Year Economy and the Incumbent Party's Two-Party Presidential Vote, 194896, 129

6.2. A Model of Voters' Politicized Impressions of National Economic Conditions, 133

6.3. The Third-Year Economy and the In-Party Candidate's Early September Trial-Heat Poll Standing, 195296, 136

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1.1 The Pre-Election Vote Intention and the Post-Election Reported Presidential Vote, 1996, 7

1.2 Reported Time Voters Decided Their Presidential Vote Choice, 195296, 8

1.3 Forecasting the Presidential Vote, 194896, 15

1.4 Trial-Heat Success in Forecasting the Presidential Election Winner, 194896, 16

1.5 Forecasting the Vote with Preference Polls and Economic Growth, 194896, 19

1.6 Accuracy of In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Expected Presidential Votes, 194896, 21

2.1 The Partisanship of American Voters, 195296, 34

2.2 The Public Opinion Dynamics of Momentum and the Narrowing Effect, 48

3.1 Campaign Effects and Four Types of Changes in Trial-Heat Polls, 55

3.2 Classification of Influences on Presidential Elections, 58

3.3 The Reported NES Presidential Vote Division and the Actual National Popular Presidential Vote Division, 195296, 62

3.4 The Net Effect of Presidential Campaigns, 194896, 76

4.1 The Partisan Composition of the Electorate, Partisan Defection Rates, Independent Voting, and National Popular Vote, 195296, 85

4.2 The Parties' Positions on Issues in Recent Presidential Elections, 90

4.3 Candidates Who Previously Ran for or Served as President or Vice President, 194896, 95

4.4 Timing of Vote Decision, Stability of Vote Intention, Partisanship, and Presidential Vote, 1996, 98

5.1 Presidential Incumbency and the National Vote, 18681996,