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Abel Escribà-Folch - Migration and Democracy: How Remittances Undermine Dictatorships

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Book:
Migration and Democracy: How Remittances Undermine Dictatorships
Author:
Abel EscribFolch / Joseph Wright / Covadonga Meseguer
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
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Books / Politics
Year:
2022
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MIGRATION AND DEMOCRACY

Migration and Democracy

HOW REMITTANCES UNDERMINE DICTATORSHIPS

ABEL ESCRIB-FOLCH

COVADONGA MESEGUER

JOSEPH WRIGHT

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS

PRINCETON AND OXFORD

Princeton University Press is committed to the protection of copyright and the intellectual property our authors entrust to us. Copyright promotes the progress and integrity of knowledge. Thank you for supporting free speech and the global exchange of ideas by purchasing an authorized edition of this book. If you wish to reproduce or distribute any part of it in any form, please obtain permission.

Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to

Published by Princeton University Press

41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540

6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire OX20 1TR

press.princeton.edu

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Escrib-Folch, Abel, author. | Meseguer Yebra, Covadonga, author. | Wright, Joseph (Joseph George), 1976 author.

Title: Migration and democracy: how remittances undermine dictatorships / Abel Escrib-Folch, Covadonga Meseguer, Joseph Wright.

Description: Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2022. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2021013537 (print) | LCCN 2021013538 (ebook) | ISBN 9780691199382 (hardback) | ISBN 9780691199375 (paperback) | ISBN 9780691223056 (ebook)

Classification: LCC JV6255.E74 2021 (print) | LCC JV6255 (ebook) | DDC 332/.04246dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021013537

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021013538

Version 1.0

British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available

Editorial: Bridget Flannery-McCoy and Alena Chekanov

Production Editorial: Natalie Baan

Cover Design: Karl Spurzem

Production: Erin Suydam

Publicity: Kate Hensley and Kathryn Stevens

Copyeditor: Francis Eaves

CONTENTS

ILLUSTRATIONS AND TABLES

Figures

Global remittances, 201018

Remittances and democratization

How dictatorships collapse, by time period

Empirical predictions for remittance, protest, and turnout

Foreign income flowing to autocracies, 19882018

Remittances and government revenue

Remittances and government spending

Remittances and high-intensity, state-led repression

Remittances and soft repression

Remittances and anti-government protest

Remittances and pro-government mobilization

Dictatorships and democracies in Africa, 2008.

Non-response rates for Afrobarometer survey questions

Remittances increase protest in opposition districts

Remittances, poverty, and protest

Predicting non-response rates for various outcomes

District-level government support and electoral support

Remittances and presidential vote share

Remittances and turnout in executive elections

Remittances and vote turnout, by district-level government support

Remittances and vote turnout, by poverty level

Remittances and turnout: alternative swing district measure

Remittances and incumbent vote shares in Senegal and Cambodia

Remittances strengthen opposition parties and civil society organizations

Remittances and democratic transitions

Share of remittance inflows from democracies: estimates for 19902015

Revisiting the macro-evidence

Tables

African autocracies, 2008

Remittance estimates using an alternative measure of opposition district

Items in the Progovernment measure

Remittances, political discussion, and behavior

Remittances and behavior: heterogeneous effects

PREFACE

By the end of the century, the number of people living in Africa will approach the number living in Asia, with each region home to between four and five billion people. Meanwhile, populations in Europe and the Americas are projected to stagnate, and even fall in some countries. Further, accelerating climate change is likely to prompt large-scale population movements as currently inhabited areas, particularly coastal and tropical regions, become uninhabitable. Together, the uneven distribution of future population growth and the unequal impact of climate change mean human migration will become the central global issue of the current century and beyond.

An emerging consensus argues that migration, especially emigration from low- and middle-income countries to high-income countries, is good for development. Migrants not only earn higher wages than they would without migrating, but they also send financial remittances directly to family members left behind, who invest these resources in human capital and public goods, a first-order benefit to individuals, households, and even their communities. Migration thus boosts well-being both for those who move and for the people they leave behind. Economists have also reached a consensus that the development of societies with open access to political and economic organizations that foster competition is the key to sustained well-being; and the most important socio-political institution to ensure open societies and sustain long-term well-being is democracy. This book builds on these insightsthe micro-benefits of migration and the macro-benefits of democratic, open access societiesto explore how out-migration shapes democracy in low- and middle-income countries.

While the benefits of migration for the well-being of migrants are now widely understood, there is growing concern over whether migration undermines democracy in host countries by, for example, abetting the rise of nationalist governments, weakening democratic values, or hindering cooperation and public goods provision. Lost in this debate, however, is reflection on how migration influences democracy in migrant-sending countries. Indeed, policy discussion of migration focuses almost exclusively on how immigration influences democracy in rich countriesa view that neglects the reality of circular migration and the power of migrants to shape outcomes in their home countries.

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