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Mark Schafer - Groupthink Versus High-Quality Decision Making in International Relations

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Book:
Groupthink Versus High-Quality Decision Making in International Relations
Author:
Mark Schafer / Scott Crichlow
Publisher:
Columbia University Press
Genre:
Books / Politics
Year:
2010
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Groupthink

Versus

High-Quality

Decision Making

in International

Relations

Groupthink

Versus

High-Quality

Decision Making

in International

Relations

Mark Schafer and

Scott Crichlow

Columbia University Press New York

Columbia University Press

Publishers Since 1893

New York Chichester, West Sussex

cup.columbia.edu

E-ISBN 978-0-231-52018-8

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Schafer, Mark, 1962

Groupthink versus high-quality decision making in international relations / Mark Schafer and Scott Crichlow.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 978-0-231-14888-7 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-23114889-4 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-231-52018-8 (e-book)

1. United StatesForeign relations19451989 Decision making. 2. United StatesForeign relations 1989Decision making. 3. United StatesForeign relations19451989 Decision makingCase studies. 4. United StatesForeign relations1989Decision makingCase studies. 5. Group problem solvingUnited StatesCase studies. I. Crichlow, Scott, 1971 II. Title.

JZ1480.S32 2010

353.132330973dc22 2009034847

A Columbia University Press E-book.
CUP would be pleased to hear about your reading experience with this e-book at .

References to Internet Web sites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the author nor Columbia University Press is responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was prepared.

We dedicate this book to Cecil Eubanks and Stephen G.Walker. Great intellectuals, outstanding role models, andwonderful friends, they have taught us much about life inthe academy, and otherwise.

Contents

A model of foreign-policy decision making

Bivariate regression models: Situation variables explaining national-interest outcomes

Bivariate regression models: Situation variables explaining level of international conflict

Bivariate regression models: Situation variables explaining decision-processing faults

Bivariate regression models: Group-structural variables explaining national-interest outcomes

Bivariate regression models: Group-structural variables explaining level of international conflict

Bivariate regression models: Group-structural variables explaining decision-processing faults

Bivariate regression models: Decision-processing variables explaining national-interest outcomes

Bivariate regression models: Decision-processing variables explaining level of international conflict

Multivariate model: Situation variables explaining national-interest outcomes

Multivariate model: Situation variables explaining decision-processing faults

Multivariate model explaining national-interest outcomes

Multivariate model (with Favorable-Power variable) explaining national-interest outcomes

Multivariate model explaining level of international conflict

Multivariate model (with Favorable-Power variable) explaining level of international conflict

Multivariate model explaining decision-processing faults

Multivariate model (with Favorable-Power variable) explaining decision-processing faults

Decision-making variables and outcome variables per leader

Psychological-trait scores per leader

Leaders ranked by trait stability

Leaders average trait deviation

Bivariate correlations: Traits by decision-making faults

Bivariate correlations: Combination variables by decision-making faults

Multivariate models explaining group-structural faults

Multivariate models explaining decision-processing faults

Bivariate correlations: Psychological variables by outcomes

Multivariate models explaining national interests

Multivariate models explaining level of international conflict

This area of research began for us a long time ago, when Mark Schafer had just arrived at LSU as a new Ph.D. and assistant professor and Scott Crichlow had arrived there as a first-year graduate student. We published our first work in this area shortly thereafter. And while each of us continues to work separately in other areas of political psychology and international relations, our interest and work together in group decision making has continued since that time and is a major focus of our careers. This work has always been special to us because it combines the careful analysis of caseswhich keeps us anchored in real-world phenomenawith social-scientific methods and generalizable findings.

Of course, since those early years many colleagues and students have provided insights, assistance, and support, and it would be impossible to acknowledge all of them. But there are some to whom we offer particular thanks. Over the last two years, four student workers at LSU have provided excellent assistance with various parts of the project: Cassie Black, Jessi deGruy, Christopher Nunez, Jonathon Nunley, Nicholas Smith, and John Turner.

We also thank our editor at Columbia University Press, Anne Routon. She was enthusiastic about the project from the start and did wonders to facilitate the process and the completion of the book. We thank her for her support and insights and for helping with a large number of tedious e-mail questions! She has been a joy to work with.

Rob Fellman, our copy editor at Columbia University Press, did a great job and was very helpful, responsive, and friendly along the way.

Joey Zimmerman was there at the very start and provided much support and encouragement along the way. He also helped specifically with some computer and IT components of the project, and we thank him very much.

We also wish to acknowledge and thank two individuals to whom we dedicate this book. Two of the finest and wisest individuals we have ever had the privilege of knowing, Cecil Eubanks and Stephen G. Walker, have provided much support, guidance, and encouragement, and they have inspired us in many ways. We strive to live up to their example, and we thank them for all that they have done.

More than thirty-five years ago, Irving Janis published his now well-known book Victims of Groupthink: A Psychological Study of Foreign-Policy Decisions and Fiascoes. Janiss basic argument was that the quality of the process of foreign-policy making is likely to have an effect on the quality of outcomes that stem from the decision. Sometimes decision makers engage in a careful, deliberative process that seeks deep and varied information, specifies objectives, considers alternatives, asks hard questions, checks against biases in the process, questions assumptions, and reevaluates information and choices when needed. Citizens might generally assume that those in the upper echelons of government always conduct such careful, rational decision processes, especially when making major foreign-policy decisions that affect the blood and treasure of the country. Yet Janiss important work demonstrated that sometimes the process of foreign-policy making can be deeply flawedand in such cases the probability of having a poor outcome goes up significantly.

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